Italy will have their eye on the automatic qualification spot when they face Estonia on Saturday.

Italy will look to extend their winning streak and strengthen their World Cup qualification campaign when they face Estonia at the A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn on Saturday night. After two high-scoring victories in September, Gennaro Gattuso’s revitalised Azzurri aim to keep their momentum alive, while Estonia hope to avoid another one-sided result against the four-time world champions.

Italy’s transformation under Gattuso has been both dramatic and effective. After a disastrous start to their qualifying journey that saw them humbled 3-0 by Norway, the appointment of the fiery former midfielder has injected much-needed grit, intensity, and attacking freedom into the squad.

The Azzurri were ruthless in their 5-0 demolition of Estonia in Bergamo, showcasing their attacking depth with five different goal scorers. That was followed by a chaotic yet thrilling 5-4 win over Israel, a game that exposed their defensive vulnerability but also demonstrated their resilience and willingness to fight until the final whistle.

Gattuso’s Italy now sit within striking distance of the qualification spots, six points behind group leaders Norway but with two games in hand. With their attacking confidence growing and the players responding to Gattuso’s demanding style, anything short of another commanding win in Tallinn would be viewed as a disappointment.

Estonia, meanwhile, enter this clash struggling for form and confidence. Jurgen Henn’s men have taken just three points from five matches, their only win coming against Moldova. Since then, their performances have been flat, particularly in attack, the Baltic side have gone over 300 minutes without scoring. Their last outing, a goalless draw against Andorra, highlighted their lack of creativity and cutting edge.

Historically, this fixture has been one-sided. Italy have won all previous encounters with Estonia, including September’s five-goal rout, and have not conceded a goal to them in over a decade. For the hosts, this is a test of discipline, organisation, and pride, as they attempt to contain a superior opponent.

For Italy, the objective is clear, maintain their momentum and close the gap on Norway to keep hopes of direct qualification alive. Another convincing win would not only boost confidence but also improve their goal difference, which could prove vital in the race for the top two.

For Estonia, this fixture is about pride and progress. A competitive showing against one of the world’s elite teams would be a significant morale boost for a side ranked 129th by FIFA. Their focus will likely be on damage limitation and attempting to frustrate Italy through compact defending.

It is difficult to envision anything other than another emphatic Italian victory. Gattuso’s men are finding rhythm in attack, with Giacomo Raspadori, and Sandro Tonali all in fine form. Their energy, coupled with Italy’s ability to control possession, should make this a long night for Estonia’s defence.

While Gattuso may rotate his lineup slightly, the Azzurri have more than enough depth to dominate proceedings. Estonia’s compact setup might frustrate Italy early on, but once the visitors find their breakthrough, the floodgates could open, much like in their previous meeting. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Estonia

Estonia manager Jurgen Henn has named a largely familiar 26-man squad for this crucial World Cup qualifier, with few surprises but some key changes due to injuries and suspension.

The most notable inclusion is Karel Mustmaa, who earns his first senior call-up after an impressive spell with PAOK in Greece. His addition injects youthful energy into an otherwise experienced setup. Meanwhile, captain Karol Mets returns to the side after missing last month’s fixtures through injury and will look to provide leadership at the heart of defence as he closes in on another international milestone.

However, the hosts will be without their most reliable attacking outlet, Henri Anier, who remains suspended after picking up two yellow cards in the previous round of fixtures. His absence leaves Estonia without their leading active goalscorer, putting the onus on Rauno Sappinen to spearhead the attack.

Between the posts, Karl Hein, currently on loan at Werder Bremen from Arsenal, is expected to start. Despite a tough outing against Bayern Munich recently, the young goalkeeper has been one of Estonia’s most consistent performers. In defence, Maksim Paskotsi brings international experience alongside Marten Kuusk to complete the central defensive unit.

Henn is expected to stick with a compact 4-2-3-1 formation, designed to absorb pressure and counter through quick transitions. In goal, Karl Hein is expected to retain his spot. Despite conceding four goals against Bayern Munich recently, Hein remains Estonia’s most reliable option between the sticks. His shot-stopping ability will be tested heavily by Italy’s dynamic frontline.

Defensively, Maksim Paskotsi is expected to start at centre-back alongside Marten Kuusk, while Michael Schjonning-Larsen and Joseph Saliste should operate as full-backs. The defensive structure will need to stay compact to contain Italy’s fluid attacking movement.

In midfield, Kevor Palumets and Rocco Shein will likely occupy the deeper roles, screening the defence and attempting to break up Italy’s rhythm. Further ahead, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, Ioan Yakovlev, and Mattias Kait are expected to form the attacking midfield trio, tasked with providing width and supporting Rauno Sappinen when Estonia transition forward.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Hein; Schjonning-Larsen, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Saliste; Shein, Palumets; Yakovlev, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Sappinen

Italy

Gennaro Gattuso will field a strong lineup as the Azzurri aim to secure another crucial three points in their World Cup qualifying campaign. Despite suggesting flexibility with formations during his early tenure, Gattuso is expected to deploy a four-man backline against Estonia .

Gattuso faces a few personnel challenges ahead of the trip to Tallinn. Both Matteo Politano of Napoli and Mattia Zaccagni, the Lazio captain, have withdrawn from the squad due to injuries. Their absence leaves the Italian flanks lighter than usual and will force tactical reshuffling in the wide positions.

To compensate, Gattuso has called up Leonardo Spinazzola and Roberto Piccoli as replacements. However, attacking options Giacomo Raspadori of Atletico Madrid, and Bologna duo Riccardo Orsolini and Nicolo Cambiaghi, are the front-runners to start on the wings.

In midfield, Italy are bolstered by the return of Bryan Cristante, who has enjoyed an impressive spell of form with AS Roma and is now pushing for a starting berth. His inclusion adds physical presence and control in the centre of the pitch. Alongside him, Nicolo Barella and Manuel Locatelli are expected to maintain their roles as key orchestrators in Italy’s engine room, while Sandro Tonali could offer creative support with his deep-lying distribution.

Up front, the dynamic pairing of Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean is set to continue. The duo were lethal in last month’s reverse fixture, combining for three goals against Estonia and forming a potent balance of power and movement. Retegui’s sharp positioning complements Kean’s pace and physicality, giving Italy multiple attacking dimensions.

Defensively, Gianluigi Donnarumma remains the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper, providing leadership and composure from the back. The defensive line is likely to consist of Giovanni Di Lorenzo at right-back, Gianluca Mancini and Alessandro Bastoni as the central pairing, and Federico Dimarco on the left. This unit provides both strength and forward thrust, especially with Dimarco’s overlapping runs and crossing ability.

Italy are expected to maintain a 4-4-2 formation, with emphasis on wide play and quick transitions through the midfield. Given their technical superiority and attacking firepower, the Azzurri will likely dictate tempo and territory, pressing Estonia high and forcing errors in possession.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Orsolini, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali; Kean, Retegui

Key Stats

• Italy have won all seven previous meetings against Estonia, scoring 25 goals and conceding just two in those encounters. The most recent clash ended in a 5-0 victory for the Azzurri in Bergamo last month.

• Since Gennaro Gattuso took charge, Italy have scored 10 goals in their last two World Cup qualifiers, averaging 5 goals per match, a sharp turnaround after their goalless start under former boss Luciano Spalletti.

• Estonia have failed to score in their last three consecutive matches, including competitive and friendly fixtures, accumulating more than 300 minutes without finding the net. Their only win in qualifying came against Moldova earlier this year.

• The Baltic nation have managed just one home victory in their last nine competitive fixtures in Tallinn, losing six of those. They’ve also conceded at least two goals in each of their last five home qualifiers against top-50 ranked nations.

• Despite their attacking flourish, Italy have kept three clean sheets in their last four matches across all competitions. Gianluigi Donnarumma has faced just six shots on target in the past 180 minutes of World Cup qualifying.

Player to Watch

Sandro Tonali

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The midfield maestro is expected to play a crucial role for Italy against Estonia. The Newcastle United star brings tactical balance, technical precision, and relentless work rate to Gennaro Gattuso’s side, qualities that make him indispensable in both buildup and defensive transitions.

With the Azzurri expected to dominate possession, Tonali’s ability to dictate tempo from deep and switch play quickly will be key to breaking down Estonia’s compact defensive lines. His sharp distribution and vision allow Italy to transition seamlessly from defence to attack, often releasing the forwards, particularly Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui, into dangerous spaces.

Equally, Tonali’s defensive awareness ensures stability when Italy push forward. He excels at regaining possession high up the pitch, reading opponents’ movements, and initiating counter-pressing actions immediately after turnovers. His partnership with Nicolo Barella and Manuel Locatelli is central to Italy’s tactical fluidity.

Having scored and assisted in recent qualifiers, Tonali’s influence extends beyond control of the midfield. Against Estonia, expect him to be the fulcrum of Italy’s play, orchestrating attacks, recycling possession efficiently, and perhaps even finding the net from distance.

Prediction

Estonia 0-4 Italy

Given the vast gulf in quality, experience, and tactical depth between the two sides, this matchup looks heavily tilted in Italy’s favour. The Azzurri are brimming with confidence after scoring ten goals across their last two qualifiers, and under Gennaro Gattuso, they seem to have rediscovered the balance between attacking flair and defensive discipline.

Estonia, on the other hand, continue to struggle in front of goal, failing to score in their last three outings, and their defensive setup, while compact, has often been breached easily by faster, technically superior opponents. The absence of veteran striker Henri Anier further limits their attacking threat, forcing them to rely on counterattacks and set pieces to create any real danger.

Italy’s midfield trio of Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Barella, and Manuel Locatelli should dominate possession and dictate the rhythm of play, while the front duo of Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui will fancy their chances against an overworked Estonian backline.

With Federico Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo pushing high on the flanks, Italy’s wide overloads could prove decisive. Expect the visitors to control proceedings from the outset, create a flurry of chances, and keep Estonia pinned back for most of the contest. The Hard Tackle predicts a 4-0 win for Gattuso and his charges.