Thomas Tuchel will aim to secure World Cup qualification as England travel to Latvia with a win in their sights.

The Daugava Stadium in Riga could turn into the scene of England’s qualification celebration on Tuesday evening, as Thomas Tuchel’s side travel to face Latvia in their sixth World Cup 2026 qualifying match in Group K.

England stand on the brink of confirming their spot at the top of the group, needing just one more victory to seal first place and an early ticket to North America. Latvia, on the other hand, find themselves in freefall, winless in their last six outings and struggling for rhythm or confidence as they prepare to welcome one of Europe’s elite.

Since succeeding Gareth Southgate, Thomas Tuchel has quickly reasserted England’s dominance on the international stage. The German tactician has guided the Three Lions to a string of composed and commanding qualifying victories, and Thursday’s emphatic 3–0 win over Wales in a friendly served as another statement of intent.

Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins, and Bukayo Saka struck within the first 20 minutes to dismantle their neighbours, and though England eased off after the break, their control never wavered. It was a sharp reminder of the quality and depth Tuchel has at his disposal, even as he continues to refine his tactical identity with the national team.

The win over Wales followed a mixed start to his tenure, but the Euro 2024 finalists have now rediscovered their flow at the right time. With Serbia’s defeat to Albania handing them a golden opportunity, victory in Riga would mathematically secure England’s place at the World Cup, still unbeaten, still unbreached.

Remarkably, England remain the only team across UEFA’s five-nation qualifying groups yet to concede a single goal ahead of the clash with Latvia. Their defensive solidity has become a defining feature under Tuchel, forming the foundation for their clinical attacking play. Against an opponent that has never faced England on home soil before, that run looks unlikely to end anytime soon.

For Latvia, the equation is far less flattering ahead of the game against England. Head coach Paolo Nicolato has seen flashes of resilience from his young squad, but consistency has been their Achilles’ heel. Their 2–2 draw with Andorra at home on Saturday summed up their campaign. spirited but ultimately insufficient.

The result left Latvia marooned in fourth place, six points behind the playoff spots with two games left to play. In theory, qualification is still mathematically possible, but it would require a perfect finish from the hosts and a complete collapse from their rivals, a scenario that seems highly improbable.

Latvia’s record against top opposition makes grim reading. They have lost 14 consecutive matches against top-10 ranked nations by a combined scoreline of 41–1. The reverse fixture at Wembley, a 3–0 defeat seven months ago, offered a clear indication of the gulf between these sides.

With just one win in their last 12 matches across all competitions, Nicolato’s men will need a performance for the ages to avoid another long evening. Their challenge will not only be technical but psychological, facing an England team motivated by the prospect of early qualification. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Latvia

Latvia head coach Paolo Nicolato will be forced to make do without two of his most influential players for this clash. Roberts Uldrikis, the team’s primary attacking outlet and top scorer in recent years, continues to recover from injury and will play no part against England.

Similarly, Kristers Tobers, who has been a key midfield presence and currently plies his trade with Aberdeen, remains sidelined due to a muscular issue. Their absences strip Latvia of both creativity and leadership in central areas. Fortunately for Nicolato, there are no suspensions within the squad, ensuring that every other player from the draw against Andorra is available for selection.

In their most recent outing, Nicolato did not hesitate to make significant in-game adjustments, introducing three substitutes at half-time in an attempt to inject energy and control. One of those changes saw Dario Sits, the young Atletico Madrid B forward, withdrawn at the interval after a subdued display.

The 21-year-old now faces the risk of losing his place in the starting lineup to the more seasoned Janis Ikaunieks, who remains one of Latvia’s most dependable creative influences. Ikaunieks, along with Vladislavs Gutkovskis, is currently the joint-highest active scorer for the national side with 12 goals, and the duo’s understanding in the final third will be vital if the hosts are to pose any threat.

Tactically, Nicolato is expected to persist with his preferred 5-3-2 formation, focusing on compact defensive organisation and quick transitions. Krisjanis Zviedris will start between the posts, shielded by a back five featuring Roberts Savalnieks at right wing-back and Andrejs Ciganiks on the opposite flank. The central defensive trio of Daniels Balodis, Antonijs Cernomordijs, and Raivis Jurkovskis will be tasked with containing England’s dynamic frontline.

In midfield, Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Janis Ikaunieks, and Renars Varslavans will form a compact trio aimed at disrupting England’s rhythm while looking to launch counters through direct vertical passes. Up front, Vladislavs Gutkovskis is expected to lead the line, partnering Dario Sits. The emphasis will be on defensive solidity, swift movement on the break, and exploiting set pieces, an area Latvia have often relied upon to trouble superior opposition.

Probable Lineup (5-3-2): Zviedris; Savalnieks, Balodis, Cernomordijs, Jurkovskis, Ciganiks; Zelenkov, Ikaunieks, Varslavans; Gutkovskis, Sits

England

Thomas Tuchel has only a couple of fitness concerns to contend with ahead of Tuesday’s encounter in Riga. Skipper Harry Kane was an unused substitute in the 3-0 friendly victory over Wales, with Tuchel opting not to take any risks following the striker’s recent ankle issue. The German tactician confirmed prior to that match that he was “convinced” Kane would recover in time to feature against Latvia, and all indications point toward the captain’s return to the starting lineup for this crucial qualifier.

However, Jarell Quansah will play no part in proceedings. The Bayer Leverkusen defender was withdrawn from the squad as a precaution due to a minor injury, and though his issue is not considered serious, Tuchel has chosen not to take any chances. Apart from the young centre-back’s absence, England have no suspensions or further injury worries to manage, leaving the coach with an otherwise full-strength selection pool.

Given that England are one win away from sealing top spot in Group K, Tuchel is unlikely to make sweeping changes to his starting eleven. He is expected to retain the core that comfortably dispatched Wales, with only a few strategic rotations to manage fatigue and reintegrate key players. Marcus Rashford could be handed a recall on the left flank, potentially replacing Anthony Gordon, while Harry Kane should spearhead the attack in place of Ollie Watkins.

Tactically, England are expected to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, designed to dominate possession and apply structured pressure high up the pitch. Jordan Pickford will take his place in goal, protected by a back four of Ezri Konsa at right-back, Marc Guehi and John Stones at the heart of defence, and Djed Spence on the left. The double pivot of Elliott Anderson and Declan Rice will anchor midfield, providing both defensive balance and forward progression through the lines.

In attack, Bukayo Saka should continue on the right wing, with Morgan Rogers occupying the central attacking midfield role after his impressive display against Wales. Marcus Rashford is likely to start on the left, adding pace and directness to England’s forward play, while Harry Kane will lead the line as the focal point, both creator and finisher within Tuchel’s system. With qualification nearly secured, Tuchel’s plan will revolve around controlled possession, intelligent movement, and ruthless efficiency in front of goal.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Konsa, Guehi, Stones, Spence; Anderson, Rice; Saka, Rogers, Rashford; Kane

Key Stats

• England are the only team across all UEFA World Cup qualifying groups yet to concede a single goal. Thomas Tuchel’s side have kept five clean sheets in as many matches, underlining their remarkable defensive organisation.

• Latvia have failed to win any of their last six matches in all competitions, drawing two and losing four. Their last home victory came more than a year ago, a 2-0 success against Gibraltar in a friendly fixture.

• England have a perfect record against Latvia, winning all of their previous encounters without conceding a goal. Their last meeting at Wembley ended in a comfortable 3-0 victory for the Three Lions.

• The hosts have lost 14 consecutive matches against teams ranked inside FIFA’s top ten, conceding 41 goals and scoring only once during that dismal run, a statistic that highlights the gulf in class.

• Since taking charge, Thomas Tuchel has guided England to five wins from six matches across all competitions, scoring 14 goals and conceding none in competitive fixtures. His side have averaged over 60% possession in each qualifier, showing both control and consistency.

Player to Watch

Bukayo Saka

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Few players in world football embody consistency and composure quite like Bukayo Saka, and under Thomas Tuchel, the Arsenal winger has elevated his influence for England even further. After registering a goal and an assist in the recent friendly win over Wales, Saka enters this clash as one of the first names on the team sheet, a testament to his tireless work rate, creativity, and precision in the final third.

Operating from the right flank, Saka’s ability to cut inside onto his stronger left foot makes him a constant menace for defenders. His intelligent movement between the lines not only stretches opposing backlines but also creates valuable space for overlapping full-backs and central runners. Against Latvia’s deep defensive block, his quick one-twos and incisive delivery could be the key to unlocking an otherwise compact system.

Moreover, Saka’s maturity and decision-making at just 24 years old continue to stand out. He’s not just a wide player, he is a tactical fulcrum who helps set England’s tempo in possession and leads their pressing structure off the ball. If England are to wrap up qualification in style, expect Saka to play a pivotal role once again, either by finding the back of the net or creating chances for Harry Kane and Marcus Rashford to finish.

Prediction

Latvia 0-4 England

England’s form under Thomas Tuchel has been nothing short of clinical, and all signs point towards another routine performance in Riga. The Three Lions have combined defensive discipline with attacking fluidity, controlling matches with ease and showing a ruthless edge when opportunities arise. With Harry Kane set to return to the starting lineup and Bukayo Saka in electric form, Tuchel’s men should have far too much quality for a struggling Latvian side.

Latvia’s recent results paint a bleak picture, winless in six and leaking goals against stronger opposition. Their defensive structure has been shaky, and with key players like Roberts Uldrikis and Kristers Tobers unavailable, Nicolato’s options look thin both in midfield and attack. Even home advantage is unlikely to shift the balance, as Latvia’s record against elite teams remains dismal.

England will likely dictate the tempo from the first whistle, pinning Latvia deep and exploiting the flanks through Saka and Rashford. Given the visitors’ immaculate defensive record and superior individual talent, this should be a straightforward evening for Thomas Tuchel’s side.