Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will both be eyeing a spot in the Spanish Super Cup final when they square up against each other on Thursday.

The latest instalment of the Madrid derby will take place in the semi-finals of the Spanish Super Cup in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Real Madrid are looking to win the competition for the 14th time, while Atletico Madrid are aiming to secure their fourth title.

Atletico Madrid have not been at their best this season. While Diego Simeone’s men did briefly bounce back after a disappointing start, they have been very inconsistent, and the chances of them winning the league title do not look that promising. However, they will look to keep that aside and focus on lifting the Super Cup for now.

While the Colchoneros have won four out of their last five games across competitions, Simeone’s charges are heading into this fixture on the back of a disappointing 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad. They will certainly have to do much better to take down their city rivals.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid were off to a flying start to the season under new manager Xabi Alonso. However, they did struggle towards the end of 2025. The Merengues are 2nd in La Liga, four points behind leaders Barcelona.

Since losing to Manchester City in the Champions League, Los Blancos have won each of their last four games. They are heading into this fixture on the back of a sensational 5-1 win over Real Betis, thanks to a sensational hat-trick by Gonzalo Garcia. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at both teams and tries to predict the tactics they could put to use.

Team News & Tactics

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid remain without the services of Clement Lenglet (knee) and Nicolas Gonzalez (hamstring) because of injury. Pablo Barrios is a major doubt after being forced off in their last outing because of a calf problem.

Diego Simeone’s men will line up in a 4-4-2 formation, where Jan Oblak will continue in goal. Marcos Llorente and David Hancko should be the full-backs, while Robin Le Normand could pair up with Marc Pubill in the heart of the defence.

Giuliano Simeone and Alex Baena are expected to feature out wide on the flanks, and Conor Gallagher could come into the XI to replace Barrios. He will pair with Koke in a more central role in the middle of the park. Finally, Alexander Sorloth should continue to pair up with Argentine striker Julian Alvarez in the strike partnership.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko; Simeone, Gallagher, Koke, Baena; Sorloth, Alvarez

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappe has been left out of the squad because of the knee injury that he picked up in training prior to the Betis game. He joins Eder Militao (hamstring issue) on the sidelines. Meanwhile, Brahim Diaz is away on international duty for the AFCON with Morocco. While Trent Alexander-Arnold is back fit and part of the squad, he might not be ready to feature in this fixture.

Xabi Alonso’s team will line up in a 4-3-3 formation, where Thibaut Courtois will take charge in goal. Federico Valverde and Alvaro Carreras will continue as the full-backs, while Dean Huijsen could return to the XI to pair up Antonio Rudiger at the heart of the defence.

As for the midfield unit, Aurelien Tchouameni will feature in the holding role, while Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga will be in his support in the centre of the park. The trio will look to ensure they dominate possession and control the tempo of the game.

Meanwhile, Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior should continue to feature on the flanks, with in-form Gonzalo Garcia leading the line for Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid. With Mbappe unavailable, Gonzalo Garcia got a rare start up top for against Real Betis, and he stepped up by scoring a match-winning hat-trick.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Courtois; Valverde, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Garcia, Vinicius Junior

Key Stats

• Real Madrid have won 117 out of the 241 matches against Atletico Madrid, who have come out on top on 61 occasions.
• Los Blancos have won their last four games across competitions.
• Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last five fixtures (W4 D1).
• Diego Simeone’s team haven’t lost any of their last five games against Real Madrid (W2 D3).
• Real Madrid have not kept a clean sheet against Atletico Madrid since their 2-0 win at home back in December 2021.

Player to Watch

Jude Bellingham

Embed from Getty Images

While all eyes will be on 21-year-old Garcia, who bagged a hat-trick last time out, Bellingham might end up being the most important player against Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone’s team tend to stay very compact, and they do not really allow teams to dictate the pace.

As a result, someone like Bellingham, who can pick up those killer passes and also make late runs into the box, could prove very crucial for the team in white. So far, the English international has nine goal contributions in the ongoing campaign, and it won’t be much of a surprise if he ends up adding to it in this fixture.

Prediction

Atletico Madrid 2-3 Real Madrid

This Madrid derby promises to be a tightly contested affair, with both sides carrying momentum into the semi-final. Atletico Madrid are expected to keep things compact and physical, looking to disrupt Real Madrid’s rhythm and exploit moments in transition.

Diego Simeone’s men have enjoyed recent success against their city rivals, and their ability to stay organised could make this a frustrating night for Los Blancos. However, Real Madrid’s superior quality in midfield and attacking depth could ultimately tilt the balance in their favour.

With Jude Bellingham pulling the strings and Gonzalo Garcia leading the line in confident form, Xabi Alonso’s side should find ways to break through, even if it takes patience. Expect a high-intensity clash, with Real Madrid edging a narrow victory to book their place in the final. The Hard Tackle predicts a hard-fought 3-2 win for Alonso’s team.