Lazio welcome AC Milan to Stadio Olmipico in the third round’s standout clash in the Coppa Italia this week.

Lazio and AC Milan prepare for a dramatic Coppa Italia showdown on Thursday evening, meeting for the second time in five days. After Milan edged out Lazio in a tense Serie A encounter last weekend, the two teams now face off in the competition’s Last 16, where a spot in the quarter-finals is up for grabs.

The league match at San Siro saw Rafael Leao score the decisive goal, with Mike Maignan producing a series of fine saves to frustrate Lazio. The Biancocelesti were left aggrieved by a controversial VAR call that denied them a late penalty, leading to both Lazio’s assistant coach Marco Ianni and Milan’s manager Massimiliano Allegri being dismissed for dissent.

Despite a spirited performance, Lazio left Milan empty-handed, adding to the frustration of having already lost to Inter at San Siro earlier in the season. The capital team’s recent form away from home has been concerning, as they have now gone almost 400 minutes without scoring an away goal, a worrying statistic for Maurizio Sarri’s men.

However, armed home advantage on Thursday, Lazio will feel more confident, especially as they set out to capture an eighth Coppa Italia title. They were spared the opening rounds of the competition due to finishing in the top eight of Serie A last season, but their domestic campaign has not gone according to plan, with Lazio sitting eighth in the league, a full 10 points behind Milan.

Maurizio Sarri will be looking for a rare victory over his managerial rival, Allegri, whom he has defeated just four times in 21 encounters. The rivalry between the two coaches stretches back to their early days in Serie C2, but Sarri’s struggles against Allegri will make this Coppa Italia tie all the more crucial as he aims to secure Lazio’s progress in a competition they have historically enjoyed success in.

Meanwhile, Milan head into this cup tie buoyed by their 1-0 win over Lazio in Serie A, which sent them to the top of the league, level on points with Napoli and with a slender advantage over Inter Milan and AS Roma. The Rossoneri are riding a 13-game unbeaten streak, and Mike Maignan’s heroics, including keeping a ninth clean sheet of the season, have been pivotal to their success.

Having delivered a crucial victory in Derby della Madonnina, AC Milan’s focus is firmly set on continuing their title challenge while aiming for success in the Coppa Italia. While the away side’s Champions League absence gives them a clear focus on domestic silverware, the team’s motivation for a deep run in the Coppa Italia is clear.

Allegri’s men have not lifted the famous trophy in over two decades, a gap they are determined to end. The winners of Thursday’s tie will face either Parma or defending champions Bologna in the quarter-finals, making this a pivotal fixture for both sides.

AC Milan have already disposed of Bari and Lecce in this year’s Coppa Italia, securing both victories without conceding. Now, they face the tricky task of traveling to Rome for a knockout fixture that could prove decisive in their quest for domestic glory. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News & Tactics

SS Lazio

Lazio’s squad remains plagued by several absences as they head into their Coppa Italia clash with Milan. Samuel Gigot, Matteo Cancellieri, Nicolo Rovella, and Danilo Cataldi continue to nurse injuries and will miss out on Wednesday’s tie. Additionally, Valentin Castellanos, who has been sidelined for seven weeks with an injury, has only just returned to full fitness.

Although Castellanos was named to the bench for the Serie A match against Cagliari, he was not deemed fit enough to start. As a result, Tijjani Noslin or Boulaye Dia will likely step in to lead the line. However, Dia has struggled to find the back of the net since Castellanos’s absence, which has added to the team’s attacking challenges.

Given Lazio’s heavy fixture congestion, especially with an important league encounter against Bologna coming up this weekend, Maurizio Sarri is likely to rotate his squad to preserve key players. This could open up opportunities for fringe players such as Pedro and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru to earn more minutes in a crucial cup competition.

Lazio are expected to line up in their 4-3-3 system for this Coppa Italia fixture, with Christos Mandas set to start in goal in place of first-choice Ivan Provedel. The defensive quartet will feature Manuel Lazzari on the right, Patric and Alessio Romagnoli in the centre, and Nuno Tavares at left-back.

In midfield, the setup will see Matteo Guendouzi operate as the deep-lying playmaker, anchoring the midfield with his composure on the ball and distribution. Alongside him, Reda Belahyane and Toma Basic will provide energy and defensive cover, with Belahyane also capable of adding some creativity going forward.

In attack, Pedro will offer experience and flair, drifting between the lines to create opportunities. Tijjani Noslin or Boulaye Dia will occupy the central forward position, with Mattia Zaccagni’s versatility allowing him to influence play from the left-wing role.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Mandas; Lazzari, Patric, Romagnoli, Tavares; Guendouzi, Belahyane, Basic; Pedro, Noslin, Zaccagni

AC Milan

AC Milan travel to Rome with a few concerns surrounding their attacking options. Christian Pulisic, who has been in good form with two goals in the cup and seven goals in ten appearances across all competitions, is a significant doubt for Thursday’s match. The USMNT international has been plagued by muscular injuries recently, and his fitness will likely be assessed closer to kick-off.

The visitors will also be without Santiago Gimenez, who is sidelined with his own injury, further limiting their options in the forward areas. With these absences, Milan’s attack could be shaped around Rafael Leao and Christopher Nkunku, who are expected to continue their partnership up front. The two have forged a promising partnership in recent matches, and their pace and creativity will be vital in breaking down Lazio’s defense.

Despite these concerns, Milan’s midfield and defense remain robust. Massimiliano Allegri is likely to rotate, but he is expected to field a relatively strong lineup for the cup clash, aiming for a deep run in the competition. Milan’s defensive core, led by Mike Maignan in goal and the experienced partnership of Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, and Strahinja Pavlovic, will provide a solid foundation.

Milan are expected to line up in their 3-5-2 formation, a system that provides defensive solidity and width. Mike Maignan will start in goal, with Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, and Strahinja Pavlovic forming a three-man defense. The three will aim to neutralise Lazio’s attacking threat while also offering support for the full-backs in build-up play.

In midfield, Alexis Saelemaekers and Pervis Estupinan will operate as wing-backs, tasked with providing width and supplying crosses into the box. In central midfield, Samuele Ricci, Luka Modric, and Adrien Rabiot will look to dominate possession and control the tempo. Modric, in particular, will bring creativity and technical quality, while Rabiot offers a box-to-box presence.

Up front, the combination of Christopher Nkunku and Rafael Leao will be crucial for Milan’s attacking strategy. Nkunku is expected to drop into the number 10 role, linking up play and creating chances for Leao, who will use his explosive pace to stretch Lazio’s defence and get behind them.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Ricci, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan; Nkunku, Leao

Key Stats

• Lazio have failed to win three of their last four matches at home in all competitions, scoring just four goals during that run.
• AC Milan are one of the most successful clubs in the history of the Coppa Italia, having won the tournament five times in the last ten years. Their most recent victory came in 2023.
• AC Milan have a strong head-to-head record against Lazio, winning seven of their last 10 encounters. Lazio have won only once in the last four Coppa Italia meetings, with Milan securing a 2-0 victory in the 2022 quarter-finals.
• Rafael Leao has been directly involved in nine goals (six goals, three assists) in his last 10 Coppa Italia appearances for Milan.
• Lazio have conceded two or more goals in five of their last seven matches in all competitions.

Player to Watch

Raphael Leao

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Rafael Leao is undoubtedly one of the most exciting players on the pitch for AC Milan and will be crucial in this Coppa Italia clash against Lazio. The Portuguese winger has the ability to change the course of a game with his explosive pace, dribbling, and creativity. In Milan’s attacking set-up, Leao’s movement on the left wing provides width, stretching the opposition and creating space for his teammates in the middle.

Leao has been directly involved in nine goals (6 goals, 3 assists) in his last ten Coppa Italia appearances, making him one of the most reliable performers in Milan’s cup campaigns. With Lazio’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly on their left side, Leao’s ability to cut inside and shoot with his stronger right foot could prove decisive. His combination with Christopher Nkunku will be key to unlocking Lazio’s defence, especially given the lack of depth Lazio has on the flanks.

Leao’s pace and flair also give Milan an advantage in transition, where he can exploit any gaps left by Lazio’s defensive line. He has proven to be a big-game player, and this Coppa Italia encounter provides him with the perfect platform to add to his impressive tally for Milan in cup competitions. Expect Leao to be involved in the majority of Milan’s attacking forays, whether as a goalscorer or provider.

Prediction

SS Lazio 1-3 AC Milan

Despite Lazio’s strong form at home in the Coppa Italia, they face a difficult task against a Milan side that is in excellent form and has the advantage in terms of squad quality and depth. Lazio’s recent struggles, particularly at the back, will likely be exploited by Milan’s attacking players, with Rafael Leao and Christopher Nkunku providing the necessary flair and creativity.

Milan’s experience in cup competitions and their ability to break down defences in high-pressure situations make them the favourites. Lazio, while capable of pushing Milan on the counter, will need a flawless defensive performance and a spark from their attacking players to get something from the game.

However, given Milan’s attacking potency, defensive strength, and the return of players like Luka Modric and Adrien Rabiot in midfield, they should have enough to progress to the Coppa Italia quarter-finals.