Italy will hope to secure an automatic spot in the 2026 FIFA World Cup when they take on Moldova on Thursday night.

The stakes are high for Italy as they travel to Chisinau to face Moldova in their penultimate World Cup 2026 qualifying match on Thursday evening. For the Azzurri, this game is more about maintaining momentum than chasing miracles. Qualification through the playoffs already looks inevitable, but Gennaro Gattuso’s side will be determined to keep their faint hopes of automatic qualification alive.

After years of heartbreak and two consecutive World Cup absences, Italy finally look like a team reborn under Gattuso. The fiery former midfielder, appointed after Luciano Spalletti’s departure, has injected renewed belief and intensity into the squad. His team have won four consecutive matches, scoring 16 goals in the process, a run that includes last month’s emphatic 3-0 victory over Israel, inspired by Mateo Retegui, who bagged a clinical brace.

Despite their resurgence, direct qualification seems out of reach. Italy trail Norway by three points and a significant goal difference of +16, leaving the playoff route as the realistic path to North America. Even if Italy win in Moldova, they will still need an unlikely slip-up from Erling Haaland’s Norway against Estonia to reclaim top spot before the final showdown at San Siro on Sunday.

Still, Gattuso has used this campaign to re-establish Italy’s trademark defensive organisation while encouraging more direct, aggressive attacking play. Veterans like Francesco Acerbi and Giovanni Di Lorenzo have brought leadership at the back, while midfielders Davide Frattesi and Nicolo Barella have flourished in a high-press system that prioritises tempo and vertical movement.

For Moldova, this is a match about pride and progression under new leadership. After a disastrous run that included an 11-1 defeat to Norway, the heaviest in the nation’s history, long-serving coach Serghei Clescenco resigned, paving the way for Lilian Popescu to take charge. The new boss earned a positive start with a 1-1 draw against Estonia last month, ending a seven-match losing streak and offering a glimpse of resilience in a struggling squad.

Still, the Tricolorii remain winless in Group I, rooted to the bottom with just one point from seven games. They have scored only three goals and conceded 17, two of which came in their 2-0 defeat to Italy in June, when the Azzurri scored either side of halftime. Historically, Moldova have lost all six previous meetings against Italy, and another heavy defeat seems likely given the gulf in quality.

However, Popescu’s young squad, spearheadded by Ion Nicolaescu, will be eager to frustrate Italy and give their home supporters something to cheer about. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Moldova

Head coach Lilian Popescu will be without one of his most versatile players, Nichita Motpan, for the clash against Italy. The midfielder’s injury rules him out of contention, denying Moldova a key link between midfield and attack. Motpan’s absence will be felt, as he provides both energy and defensive cover in transition, vital qualities against a possession-dominant team like Italy.

On the positive side, Artur Ionita, one of Moldova’s most experienced players and currently plying his trade in Italy, returns to the national squad after missing last month’s fixtures. His composure on the ball and tactical awareness will be a welcome addition in the centre of the pitch, particularly against technically superior opposition.

Furthermore, all-time leading goalscorer Ion Nicolaescu is fit again and ready to feature. The forward, who averages a goal every three international games, will be expected to carry Moldova’s attacking threat almost single-handedly.

There are no suspension concerns within the squad, giving Popescu some flexibility in his selection, though depth remains an issue. The Moldovan coach is likely to adopt a conservative, compact setup aimed at restricting Italy’s fluid attacking play while relying on quick counterattacks.

Moldova are expected to line up in a 5-3-1-1 formation, prioritising defensive solidity and discipline. Cristian Avram will start between the posts, bringing experience and reliability as the last line of defence. The back five will likely feature Danila Forov and Artur Craciun operating as the wide centre-backs, with Vladislav Baboglo marshalling the defensive line centrally. On the flanks, Sergiu Platica will take up the right wing-back position, providing width and tracking back to support defensively, while Oleg Reabciuk will slot in on the left, his stamina and defensive awareness making him a key component in both phases of play.

The midfield trio of Mihail Caimacov, Vadim Rata, and Victor Bogaciuc will be tasked with containing Italy’s passing rhythm, closing spaces, and launching occasional forward runs when opportunities arise. Rata, in particular, will act as the transitional pivot, breaking up play and distributing quickly to trigger counters.

Further forward, Virgiliu Postolachi will operate as a supporting forward behind Ion Nicolaescu, linking midfield to attack and pressing Italy’s defenders when in possession. Nicolaescu, leading the line, will serve as Moldova’s focal point in attack, using his movement and clinical finishing to exploit rare openings on the break.

Probable Lineup (5-3-1-1): Avram; Forov, Craciun, Baboglo, Platica, Reabciuk; Caimacov, Rata, Bogaciuc; Postolachi; Nicolaescu

Italy

With qualification through the playoffs all but confirmed, Gennaro Gattuso is expected to use the trip to Moldova as an opportunity to rotate his squad and test alternative combinations ahead of next spring’s crucial playoff semi-final. The Italian manager has already hinted at fielding a “less familiar” starting eleven, balancing competitiveness with experimentation.

The most notable enforced absence is that of midfield engine Nicolo Barella, who is suspended for one match due to card accumulation. In his place, Bryan Cristante, in excellent form for Roma, is expected to step into the midfield to provide physical presence and aerial strength. Meanwhile, injuries continue to limit Gattuso’s attacking options. Moise Kean has withdrawn from the squad with a muscle issue, prompting a call-up for Bologna’s energetic winger Nicolo Cambiaghi, while Giacomo Raspadori suffered a minor knock during Italy’s first training session and remains a doubt.

Adding to the list of absentees, Federico Chiesa opted out of selection as he continues to manage lingering fitness concerns following a recent recovery period. On the brighter side, Gianluca Scamacca has regained full fitness and will compete for minutes up front alongside Italy’s top scorer in qualifying, Mateo Retegui, who already boasts five goals and four assists in this campaign.

Defensively, Alessandro Buongiorno and Samuele Ricci are both back in contention, providing depth to Gattuso’s back line and midfield rotation. The coach has also rewarded impressive domestic form by handing Elia Caprile, Cagliari’s standout goalkeeper this season, his first-ever senior call-up. However, Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected to retain his place between the posts for this qualifier.

Gattuso will likely set his team up in a 4-3-3 formation, maintaining Italy’s traditional balance between structured buildup and dynamic wide play. Gianluigi Donnarumma will start in goal, providing leadership and shot-stopping reliability. The defensive line should feature Giovanni Di Lorenzo at right-back, offering defensive stability and overlapping runs, while Federico Dimarco will operate on the left, known for his pinpoint crosses and forward thrust. At the heart of defence, Gianluca Mancini and Alessandro Bastoni are expected to start as the central pairing, combining aggression and composure in the buildup.

In midfield, Bryan Cristante will anchor the trio as a defensive midfielder, using his positional awareness to screen the defence and distribute effectively from deep. Manuel Locatelli will play slightly ahead, orchestrating transitions and recycling possession, while Sandro Tonali adds tempo and forward drive through his passing range and movement.

Up front, Riccardo Orsolini will feature on the right wing, cutting inside onto his stronger left foot to threaten goal, while Mattia Zaccagni will occupy the left flank, providing creativity and balance with his dribbling and close control. Leading the line will be Mateo Retegui, whose sharp finishing and intelligent movement make him Italy’s most reliable goal threat in the final third.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Cristante, Locatelli, Tonali; Orsolini, Retegui, Zaccagni

Key Stats

• Italy have won all six previous meetings against Moldova across all competitions, scoring 17 goals and conceding only three. Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for the Azzurri in June 2024.

• Moldova remain winless in their World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign, managing just one draw (against Estonia) and suffering six defeats, while conceding a total of 25 goals.

• Under Gennaro Gattuso, Italy have scored 16 goals in their last four matches, averaging four goals per game, while keeping three clean sheets during that span.

• The Italian striker has been directly involved in nine goals (five goals and four assists) during qualifying, the most by any Italian player in this campaign.

• Moldova have conceded at least two goals in each of their last seven competitive matches, including a record-breaking 11-1 loss to Norway, their heaviest defeat in international history.

Player to Watch

Sandro Tonali

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With Nicolo Barella suspended and Manuel Locatelli shouldering much of the midfield orchestration, Sandro Tonali becomes Italy’s key man in the centre of the park against Moldova. The Newcastle United midfielder has steadily grown into one of Gennaro Gattuso’s most trusted players, blending technical intelligence with relentless work rate, qualities that will be vital in ensuring Italy maintain control and tempo throughout the match.

Tonali’s ability to dictate the rhythm of play from deep positions makes him indispensable in Gattuso’s preferred 4-3-3 system. He reads the game astutely, breaking up opposition attacks before launching progressive passes that split defensive lines. Against a defensively compact side like Moldova, his vision and passing range will be crucial in helping Italy transition quickly from midfield to attack, particularly in feeding Mateo Retegui and Mattia Zaccagni in advanced areas.

Beyond his distribution, Tonali’s energy and positional awareness allow him to cover ground efficiently, pressing high when Italy need to regain possession and dropping deep when required to protect the backline. His balance between aggression and composure mirrors Gattuso’s own playing style, which likely explains the faith the coach has placed in him.

If Italy are to break down a disciplined Moldovan defence and assert their dominance early, Tonali’s orchestration from midfield will be central to their success. Expect him to be the metronome of this Italian side, dictating tempo, linking the lines, and perhaps even testing the goalkeeper with his trademark long-range strikes.

Prediction

Moldova 0–3 Italy

Italy’s visit to Chisinau is expected to be a one-sided affair on paper, but Gennaro Gattuso will be urging focus from his players to avoid any complacency. The Azzurri have found their rhythm under the new head coach, combining attacking flair with defensive discipline, and this fixture presents an ideal opportunity to maintain momentum heading into the playoffs.

With Mateo Retegui in prolific form and Sandro Tonali orchestrating play from midfield, Italy are likely to dominate possession and dictate the tempo from the opening whistle. Even with a rotated lineup and the absence of key names like Nicolo Barella and Federico Chiesa, Gattuso’s men should have more than enough quality to overwhelm Moldova. Expect Bryan Cristante’s physical presence and Riccardo Orsolini’s movement on the right to stretch the home defence and create multiple scoring opportunities.

For Lilian Popescu’s Moldova, the primary objective will be damage limitation. Their low block and five-man defensive structure might frustrate Italy early on, but sustaining that level of resistance over 90 minutes against such superior opposition is unlikely. Moldova’s occasional counterattacks through Ion Nicolaescu could test Italy’s concentration, but chances will be few and far between.

In the end, Italy’s class and composure should see them ease to a comfortable win, one that reinforces their confidence heading into the final qualifier and the looming playoff path.