Ecuador will aim to use home advantage against World Champions Argentina in the South American World Cup qualifiers.

Argentina will bring the curtain down on their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign with a trip to Guayaquil to face Ecuador on Tuesday night. Both nations have already booked their spots in next year’s finals, but while Argentina aim to finish as group leaders, Ecuador will look to end on a high in front of their home supporters.

Ecuador entered this qualification cycle with a three-point deduction, yet they still managed to secure their place in the World Cup for a second successive edition. Sebastián Beccacece’s side have built their success on an exceptional defensive record, conceding just five goals in 17 matches, the fewest in CONMEBOL qualifying.

However, their attacking output has been far less impressive. Ecuador have been held to eight goalless draws in the campaign, including each of their last four matches. Their most recent stalemate came away to Paraguay, meaning they are now without a goal in four games. The last time they found the net was back in March, when Enner Valencia scored twice in a 2-1 win over Venezuela.

The challenge for Beccacece will be to rediscover a cutting edge in the final third without sacrificing their defensive solidity. History is against them, though: Ecuador have not beaten Argentina at home since a 2-0 qualifier victory in June 2009.

Argentina sealed qualification back in March, but their recent 3-0 win over Venezuela was particularly significant. It marked Lionel Messi’s final competitive home appearance for his country, and the captain fittingly delivered a brace, with Lautaro Martínez also on the scoresheet. The result extended Argentina’s unbeaten run to six games, with their last defeat coming in November 2024 against Paraguay.

Lionel Scaloni’s side have been the standout attacking force in this qualifying campaign, netting 31 goals across 17 matches, seven more than Brazil, the next best. With 12 wins, two draws, and just three losses, Argentina’s dominance has reaffirmed their credentials as they prepare to defend their crown in North America.

Their record against Ecuador also inspires confidence: six wins and two draws in their last eight meetings since October 2015. Scaloni will expect his team to maintain that run, using this match as both preparation for the finals and an opportunity to close out qualifying on a high. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Ecuador

Ecuador welcome back Alan Franco, who is available for selection after serving a one-match suspension. His return offers Sebastián Beccacece greater stability in midfield. However, there is some concern over Moises Caicedo, with the Chelsea midfielder needing to be assessed after missing the 0-0 draw with Paraguay due to a minor knock. Losing Caicedo would be a significant setback, given his ability to dictate tempo and break up opposition play.

Defensively, Ecuador will look solid again, with new Arsenal signing Piero Hincapié set to form a central defensive partnership alongside Willian Pacho of Eintracht Frankfurt. Joel Ordóñez is expected to continue at right-back, while Brighton’s Pervis Estupiñán will provide his usual attacking thrust from left-back.

Up front, all eyes will be on captain Enner Valencia, Ecuador’s record goalscorer with 46 international strikes. The veteran striker will aim to end his nation’s recent four-game goal drought and inspire his side in what could be one of his last competitive appearances at this level. He will likely be supported on the flanks by teenage sensation Kendry Páez and Jordy Caicedo Angulo, giving Ecuador a blend of youthful creativity and experience in attack.

Ecuador are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation. Hernán Galíndez will take his place in goal, with Joel Ordóñez at right-back, Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié forming the centre-back pairing, and Pervis Estupiñán at left-back. In midfield, Alan Franco, Jordy Alcívar, and Joao Vite will look to control possession and support transitions. Further forward, Kendry Páez is expected to operate on the right wing, Marco Angulo on the left, and Enner Valencia will lead the line as the central striker.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Galindez; Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie, Estupinan; Franco, Alcivar, Vite; Paez, Angulo, Valencia

Argentina

Argentina will be without their captain and talisman Lionel Messi, who has confirmed that he will sit out Tuesday’s clash after playing his final competitive home qualifier in Buenos Aires last week. The Inter Miami forward, recently back from injury, has been granted additional rest before rejoining his club. This marks a symbolic moment, as Argentina must prepare to adapt without their all-time record scorer.

In defence, Cristian Romero of Tottenham Hotspur will miss the match through suspension, having collected his fourth yellow card of the qualification campaign. As a result, Leonardo Balerdi is expected to come into the back line. Meanwhile, Alexis Mac Allister, who was not risked against Venezuela due to his late arrival from Liverpool, is back in contention and could feature from the start.

Up front, Inter’s Lautaro Martínez is likely to take Messi’s place in the starting XI, joining Atletico Madrid striker Julián Álvarez in a two-man attack. Together, they will be tasked with maintaining Argentina’s attacking firepower, which has been the most prolific in CONMEBOL qualifying.

Argentina are set to line up in a 4-4-2 formation. Emiliano Martínez will guard the goal, with Nahuel Molina at right-back, Leonardo Balerdi and veteran Nicolás Otamendi forming the central defensive pairing, and Nicolás Tagliafico stationed at left-back.

Across the midfield, Nicolás González will provide width on the right, Rodrigo De Paul and Leandro Paredes will anchor the centre, while Thiago Almada is expected to operate from the left flank. In attack, Lautaro Martínez will partner Julián Álvarez, giving Lionel Scaloni a dynamic and mobile forward line.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Martinez; Molina, Balerdi, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Gonzalez, De Paul, Paredes, Almada; Martinez, Alvarez

Key Stats

• Ecuador have conceded just five goals in 17 qualifiers, the best defensive record in the CONMEBOL section.

• Ecuador have failed to score in their last four qualifiers, with their last goals coming in March when Enner Valencia netted twice against Venezuela.

• Argentina have scored 31 goals in qualifying, the highest tally in the region and seven more than Brazil.

• Argentina are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Ecuador (six wins, two draws) since a 2-0 loss in October 2015.

Player to Watch

Julian Alvarez

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With Lionel Messi absent, the spotlight turns to Julián Álvarez, who has steadily grown into one of Argentina’s most dependable forwards. The Manchester City striker brings relentless energy, intelligent movement, and sharp finishing, making him a perfect complement to Lautaro Martínez in a two-man attack.

Álvarez’s versatility allows him to drop deeper to link play, drift wide to stretch defences, or operate centrally as a direct goal threat. His tireless pressing will also be vital against an Ecuador side that prefers to sit compact and frustrate opponents. In Messi’s absence, Álvarez could be tasked with more creative responsibility while also carrying the burden of scoring.

Already a World Cup winner at just 25 years old, Álvarez has proven he can deliver on the biggest stages. Against the region’s stingiest defence, Argentina will look to his movement and finishing to break down Ecuador’s stubborn back line and close their qualifying campaign with a statement victory.

Prediction

Ecuador 0-2 Argentina

Ecuador’s resilience at the back has carried them through, but their inability to score consistently leaves them vulnerable against an Argentina side bursting with attacking talent. With Messi continuing to inspire and Lautaro Martínez in strong form, Argentina should have enough to break through the hosts’ defensive wall.