Italy will start off as heavy favourites in their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier against Estonia on Friday.

Italy’s pursuit of redemption on the road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues on Friday evening, as the Azzurri welcome Estonia to Bergamo for a crucial Group I qualifier. With memories of their recent failures still fresh and their campaign already stuttering, new boss Gennaro Gattuso faces immediate pressure to deliver results.

Italian football has been living in the shadow of two consecutive World Cup qualification disasters, and hopes of exorcising those ghosts got off to a rocky start earlier this year. A 3-0 defeat in Oslo against Norway left the Azzurri already playing catch-up in Group I, though two games in hand offer a chance to recover ground.

The chaotic end to Luciano Spalletti’s tenure did little to instil confidence. Despite ending with a 2-0 win over Moldova, Spalletti had confirmed his own dismissal just 24 hours earlier after a damaging defeat to Norway effectively sealed his fate. That left the FIGC searching for stability, and although Claudio Ranieri was initially sounded out, the veteran opted to remain at AS Roma.

The responsibility therefore fell to Gennaro Gattuso, whose fiery approach and experience at both AC Milan and Napoli are expected to inject grit into a side in need of direction. Ranked ninth in the world by FIFA, Italy enter this double-header against Estonia and Israel knowing nothing short of six points will suffice if they are to avoid the looming threat of playoffs.

In Bergamo, the home side will be expected not only to win but to do so convincingly, to rebuild confidence among both players and fans. For Estonia, Friday’s fixture represents another opportunity to test themselves against one of Europe’s giants, though their history in such meetings offers little encouragement.

The Baltic side have lost all six of their previous encounters with Italy, most recently succumbing to a 4-0 defeat in a friendly in Florence back in November 2020. Despite their status as perennial outsiders, Jurgen Henn’s side are still clinging to faint qualifying hopes.

Estonia opened their campaign with a narrow 2-1 defeat to Israel before bouncing back in dramatic fashion with a 3-2 victory over Moldova. However, back-to-back home defeats against Israel and Norway quickly halted any momentum, leaving Estonia level on three points with Italy but well behind the group’s frontrunners.

The Blueshirts may take confidence from their recent Nations League campaign, where they narrowly avoided relegation from League C, but competing for a top-two finish in Group I remains a daunting task. Their lack of goals against stronger opposition and defensive vulnerability against technically superior sides continues to hinder progress. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Italy

New boss Gennaro Gattuso has confirmed that Italy will revert to a four-man defensive line after the failed experiments with a three-at-the-back system under his predecessor Luciano Spalletti. The change is aimed at restoring stability and simplifying the defensive setup, something the Azzurri have sorely lacked during recent campaigns.

Gattuso will have almost a full squad to select from, with no major injury or suspension concerns heading into the clash with Estonia. However, there have been several squad adjustments. Destiny Udogie, Samuele Ricci, and new Napoli striker Lorenzo Lucca have been dropped.

In their place, three newcomers have been called up: Francesco Pio Esposito, Giovanni Fabbian, and Giovanni Leoni of Liverpool. While the trio is not expected to start, they are likely to be included among the substitutes as Gattuso integrates fresh talent into the senior setup.

The big decision lies in attack, where Mateo Retegui, fresh from scoring a brace for his new club Al-Qadisah, will be competing for a starting role. He faces competition from Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspadori, giving Italy multiple options to lead the line. Meanwhile, the newly-recalled Gianluca Scamacca has pulled out due to a knee injury.

Italy are expected to deploy a 4-3-3 formation against Estonia. Gianluigi Donnarumma, now officially a Manchester City player, will start in goal as captain. At right-back, Giovanni Di Lorenzo will provide width, with Federico Gatti and Alessandro Bastoni operating as the central defenders, and Federico Dimarco slotting in on the left.

As for the midfield unit, Nicolo Barella, Manuel Locatelli, and Sandro Tonali should form a dynamic trio, offering a balance of energy, creativity, and defensive cover. Up front, Matteo Politano is expected to start on the right wing, Mattia Zaccagni on the left, while Moise Kean may get the nod to lead the line through the middle.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Gatti, Bastoni, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Tonali; Politano, Kean, Zaccagni

Estonia

Estonia have assembled a 26-man squad for the clash against Italy and a subsequent friendly against Andorra. However, they will once again be without their captain Karol Mets, who remains sidelined through injury. Mets’s absence is a significant blow, as his leadership and experience would have been crucial against such high-quality opposition.

Beyond this, there are no fresh injury or suspension concerns for head coach Jürgen Henn, allowing him to rely on a relatively settled group. Between the posts, Karl Hein, currently on the books of Arsenal and gaining experience on loan at Werder Bremen, is expected to start.

In defence, Estonia will likely set up with Edgar Tur at right-back and Joseph Saliste on the left, while Marten Kuusk partners Maksim Paskotsi, formerly of Tottenham Hotspur, in the centre of the backline. The midfield should feature Rocco Robert Shein and Markus Soomets operating as the double pivot, shielding the defence while trying to recycle possession.

Further forward, Ioan Yakovlev, Mattias Kait, and Vlasiy Sinyavskiy are expected to form the attacking midfield trio, tasked with supporting the lone striker. Up front, while veteran Henri Anier is the nation’s leading active scorer, it is Rauno Sappinen who is more likely to lead the line in Bergamo due to his mobility and current form.

Estonia are therefore expected to adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation. Karl Hein will start in goal, with a back four of Edgar Tur, Marten Kuusk, Maksim Paskotsi, and Joseph Saliste. In midfield, Rocco Robert Shein and Markus Soomets will anchor the central areas. The trio of Ioan Yakovlev, Mattias Kait, and Vlasiy Sinyavskiy will provide creativity and width behind the striker, while Rauno Sappinen will be tasked with leading the attack and capitalising on any rare opportunities that come Estonia’s way.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Hein; Tur, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Saliste; Shein, Soomets; Yakovlev, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Sappinen

Key Stats

• Italy have won all six of their previous meetings with Estonia, most recently claiming a 4-0 victory in a friendly in November 2020.

• Estonia have never beaten Italy in their history, with the Azzurri scoring 18 goals and conceding just three across those six encounters.

• The Azzurri have failed to qualify for the last two World Cups (2018 and 2022), meaning they are desperate to avoid slipping into the playoffs again during this campaign.

• Estonia have lost six of their last seven away fixtures in all competitions, conceding at least twice in five of those games.

• Italy have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five matches against Estonia, underlining the defensive dominance they have enjoyed in this fixture.

Player to Watch

Nicolo Barella

Embed from Getty Images

Few players embody Italy’s midfield engine quite like Nicolò Barella. The Inter Milan star has become one of the Azzurri’s most consistent performers over the past few years, combining relentless work rate with technical elegance and tactical intelligence. His ability to press, recover possession, and immediately launch attacking transitions makes him a vital figure for new boss Gennaro Gattuso, who will be relying heavily on his experience in this qualifier.

Barella’s influence extends beyond ball-winning; he is also capable of threading incisive passes between the lines and making late runs into the penalty area, adding an extra dimension to Italy’s attack. Against Estonia, who are expected to defend deep and allow Italy the bulk of possession, Barella’s ability to break down compact defences with his vision and creativity will be crucial.

With Italy needing both points and confidence to rebuild their World Cup qualifying campaign, Barella’s leadership and dynamism in midfield could prove decisive. If he dictates the tempo and creates chances for the forwards, the Azzurri should have little trouble asserting their dominance in Bergamo.

Prediction

Italy 2-0 Estonia

Italy, with the added motivation of a new coach and the necessity to close the gap on their rivals, should dominate proceedings in Bergamo. Estonia may seek to frustrate with a defensive setup, but given the Azzurri’s superior quality and Estonia’s poor record in this fixture, it is difficult to see anything other than a comfortable win for Gennaro Gattuso’s men.