Italy and France will renew one of international football’s most celebrated rivalries when they meet at San Siro on Thursday evening.

With qualification for the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals at stake, Roberto Mancini’s Azzurri will attempt to close the gap on Zinedine Zidane’s group leaders in a contest that could significantly influence the final standings.

Italy enter the encounter enjoying an encouraging recovery following a disappointing start to Mancini’s second spell in charge. The former Manchester City manager returned to the national team amid considerable scrutiny, particularly following his controversial departure in 2023, but recent performances have offered reasons for optimism.

A 2-0 defeat against Belgium in his opening competitive match raised concerns about Italy’s direction. However, Mancini responded by introducing younger players and adopting a more adventurous attacking approach, helping the Azzurri secure an impressive 4-1 victory over Turkey.

Italy subsequently demonstrated their defensive resilience during a 1-1 draw against France in Paris, with goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma producing seven saves to preserve a valuable point. Their most recent Nations League outing brought another victory over Turkey, this time by a 3-1 scoreline. Gianluca Scamacca, Riccardo Calafiori and Pio Esposito found the net, with the latter continuing his impressive emergence in international football.

Those results have lifted Italy to second place in Group A with seven points, three behind France and one ahead of Belgium. Although qualification remains within reach, Mancini’s side face two demanding fixtures, with Thursday’s encounter followed by a potentially decisive trip to Brussels.

France, meanwhile, have enjoyed a promising start under Zidane, who replaced Didier Deschamps following the summer’s international changes. The former Real Madrid manager has quickly established a competitive team, collecting 10 points from his opening four Nations League fixtures. Les Bleus have recorded victories over Belgium twice and Turkey once, with their only dropped points coming against Italy in October.

Their most recent outing produced a dramatic 4-1 victory over Belgium, with Michael Olise’s introduction helping transform the contest during an extraordinary late attacking surge. France’s attacking depth has been particularly impressive, with Kylian Mbappe, Desire Doue, Rayan Cherki, and Olise providing different creative options.

Victory in Milan would confirm France’s position at the top of Group A, while a draw could also prove sufficient to secure quarter-final qualification depending on Belgium’s result against Turkey. Recent meetings suggest Thursday’s contest could be closely fought as both nations secured 3-1 away victories during the 2024/25 Nations League campaign before sharing the points in Paris earlier this season.

With Italy determined to maintain their recovery and France looking to consolidate their position, San Siro should provide a fitting stage for another high-quality international encounter. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Italy

Roberto Mancini faces several selection concerns, with Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean unavailable. AS Roma defender Gianluca Mancini has also withdrawn because of a muscular injury, prompting the inclusion of Federico Gatti and young Udinese defender Matteo Palma.

The squad features several emerging talents, including AC Milan attacker Alphadjo Cisse and Como youngster Mattia Liberali, who have earned their first senior call-ups. Nicolo Zaniolo has also withdrawn for personal reasons, while Marco Palestra returns after recovering from his recent injury troubles.

Mancini could continue his emphasis on youth, with Pio Esposito expected to lead the attack after his impressive goalscoring performances. Italy are expected to retain a 4-3-3 formation against France, combining midfield intensity with quick attacking combinations and movement through wide areas.

Sandro Tonali will be crucial in controlling possession and distributing the ball from deeper positions, while Nicolo Barella’s energy and forward runs could help Italy disrupt France’s midfield structure. Riccardo Calafiori could provide additional attacking support from left-back, although his defensive positioning will be particularly important against France’s dangerous right-sided attackers.

In the final third, Pio Esposito’s physical presence and intelligent movement should provide Italy with a focal point, allowing the wide forwards to attack spaces around France’s centre-backs. Mancini may also encourage aggressive pressing during the opening stages, attempting to prevent France from establishing a comfortable passing rhythm.

However, Italy must remain defensively disciplined. France’s pace during transitions could expose spaces behind the full-backs, especially if the hosts commit too many players forward. Maintaining midfield compactness while supporting the attacking trio will be essential if Italy are to challenge the group leaders.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Doumbia; Vergara, Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito

France

Zinedine Zidane is expected to welcome captain Kylian Mbappe back into the starting lineup, providing a significant boost to the visitors’ attacking options. However, Les Bleus remain without Ousmane Dembele, Maghnes Akliouche, William Saliba, and Manu Kone, while Pierre Kalulu has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Esteban Lepaul is also unavailable.

Ibrahima Konate and Aurelien Tchouameni return to the squad, while Dayot Upamecano is available again after serving a one-match suspension following his dismissal against Italy. Uncapped Sael Kumbedi could compete with Malo Gusto for a place at right-back, although the latter appears more likely to start.

France are likely to deploy an attacking 4-3-3 formation, prioritising technical control in midfield and quick movement through the final third. Tchouameni will be central to their defensive organisation, protecting the back four while allowing Adrien Rabiot and Rayan Cherki to contribute further forward.

Michael Olise could provide France’s greatest creative threat from the right flank, using his close control and ability to drift into central positions to create opportunities. Desire Doue offers similar unpredictability, while Kylian Mbappe’s pace and movement behind defenders could prove particularly dangerous against Italy’s advancing full-backs. The trio will form a fluid trifecta that will often interchange positions.

Zidane may encourage his players to press selectively rather than continuously, allowing France to remain compact before exploiting opportunities during transitions. The visitors must also prevent Italy from controlling midfield through Tonali and Barella. If France successfully disrupt the hosts’ buildup, their attacking quality could create decisive opportunities.

With qualification within reach, Zidane may favour a balanced approach that allows France to remain dangerous without becoming unnecessarily exposed defensively.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Maignan; Gusto, Jacquet, Upamecano, Truffert; Cherki, Tchouameni, Rabiot; Olise, Doue, Mbappe

Key Stats

• France lead League A Group 1 with 10 points from four matches, while Italy occupy second place with seven points.
• The Azzurri are unbeaten in their previous three Nations League fixtures, recording two victories over Turkey and a draw against France.
• Les Bleus have avoided defeat in five consecutive Nations League matches, registering four victories and one draw.
• Italy and France have each won one of their three Nations League meetings, with the other ending level. Both teams have scored five goals across those encounters.
• France have won their previous three away Nations League matches without conceding, defeating Germany, Turkey and Belgium.

Player to Watch

Michael Olise

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The 24-year-old has registered six goal involvements during the current Nations League campaign, underlining his growing importance to Les Bleus. His introduction against Belgium proved particularly influential, helping France produce a remarkable late attacking surge and secure a convincing victory.

Operating primarily from the right, Olise combines exceptional close control with intelligent movement and precise passing, making him particularly dangerous when cutting inside onto his stronger left foot. Against Italy, his movement could create problems for Riccardo Calafiori, especially when France exploit spaces during quick transitions.

Olise’s ability to combine with Rayan Cherki and Kylian Mbappe could also stretch Italy’s defensive organisation, creating opportunities both inside and around the penalty area. With France seeking to secure top spot, his creativity and ability to influence decisive attacking moments could prove instrumental.

Prediction

Italy 1-2 France

Italy’s recent improvement suggests they will provide strong resistance, particularly at San Siro, where Roberto Mancini will hope his younger squad can produce another confident performance. The hosts possess considerable midfield quality through Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Barella, while Pio Esposito’s emergence has provided an additional attacking dimension.

However, France’s greater attacking depth and impressive recent results give them a narrow advantage. Kylian Mbappe’s return should strengthen the visitors’ threat considerably, while Michael Olise and Desire Doue possess the individual quality to exploit spaces in Italy’s defensive structure.

Gianluigi Donnarumma could once again play an important role in keeping the hosts competitive, but France’s ability to create opportunities through several different attacking combinations may ultimately prove decisive. Italy should be capable of finding the net, particularly through quick transitions and set-piece situations, although containing France’s attacking movement for the entire contest will be challenging.