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Udinese vs AC Milan Preview: Prediction, Probable Lineups, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

AC Milan will attempt to put their damaging Europa League defeat behind them when they travel to face Udinese at the Bluenergy Stadium on Sunday night.

The Rossoneri arrive in very different form domestically and in Europe, while their hosts are already showing worrying signs of a potential relegation battle.

Milan’s unbeaten start to the Serie A season has provided a strong foundation for Ruben Amorim. However, Thursday’s 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth exposed some defensive and disciplinary vulnerabilities. Udinese, meanwhile, have lost five of their opening seven league matches and are struggling badly after half-time.

Milan’s 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth was a major setback following their encouraging 4-0 Europa League victory over Red Bull Salzburg, where Alphadjo Cisse announced himself with a hat-trick. The defeat in England was particularly damaging because Milan effectively undermined themselves.

Koni De Winter’s handball gifted Bournemouth an early penalty before goalkeeper and captain Mike Maignan was sent off after an altercation with Tyler Adams. The resulting second penalty left the Rossoneri with an almost impossible task.

Their domestic form, however, remains excellent and Amorim has become only the third Milan manager in club history to remain unbeaten through his first seven Serie A matches, and the first to achieve that since 1963. Milan have collected 15 points from those seven games.

Their most recent league victory was also an illustration of both their quality and their vulnerability. Milan raced into a three-goal lead against Atalanta before allowing the visitors back into the contest and ultimately having to protect their advantage. Away from home, there is another concern. Milan have drawn their last three Serie A away matches, meaning they will be looking to turn territorial control into three points at Udine.

History offers considerable encouragement. Milan won twice in Udine last year, with an aggregate score of 7-0. At the same time, Udinese enter this fixture in a much more precarious position. Kosta Runjaic’s side have suffered five defeats from seven Serie A matches, their worst losing tally at this stage of a campaign since 2017/18.

Their latest result was particularly disappointing. Udinese were beaten 3-0 at home by Lecce, with poor defending at set pieces contributing heavily to the defeat. Their biggest problem, however, appears to be their inability to sustain performances across 90 minutes.

Udinese currently have the worst second-half goal difference in Serie A at -8. They have scored only twice after half-time this season, leaving them particularly vulnerable when matches enter the final stages. That could be dangerous against Milan, who have enough attacking quality to keep applying pressure even if the game remains close initially.

There is at least one reason for Udinese to believe they can cause an upset. They defeated Milan 3-0 at San Siro in April, a result that ultimately contributed to the Rossoneri missing out on Champions League football. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Udinese Calcio

Udinese will welcome the return of Nicolo Zaniolo, although their defensive options have been hit by another injury. David Alaba suffered a calf problem during his first start for the club and joins Vakoun Bayo and Idrissa Gueye on the sidelines.

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp remains one of Udinese’s most interesting attacking weapons from midfield. He created a goal and scored another against Milan in April and has been involved in 11 Serie A goals during this calendar year. and with Bayo and Gueye unavailable, Keinan Davis is expected to lead the attack.

The 3-4-2-1 formation should allow Udinese to keep three centre-backs behind the ball while using their wing-backs to provide width. The key will be how Ekkelenkamp and Unai Gomez operate behind Davis. They need to find space between Milan’s midfield and back three rather than allowing the visitors to control the central areas.

Udinese may also target the channels behind Milan’s advanced wing-backs. Their best opportunities are likely to come through quick transitions rather than prolonged possession. Defensively, though, the hosts must improve their set-piece organisation as Milan possess enough physical presence and quality delivery to exploit the same weaknesses that Lecce exposed last weekend.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Okoye; Bertola, Solet, Ebosse; Vojvoda, Karlstrom, Piotrowski, Kamara; Ekkelenkamp, Gomez; Davis

AC Milan

Milan are expected to rotate heavily with the Derby della Madonnina approaching next weekend and a midweek fixture against Bologna also on the horizon. Goncalo Ramos has resumed full training following a minor injury and should replace Cisse in attack. Milan remain without Samuel Chukwueze, Mattia Gabbia, and Alexis Saelemaekers, while Filippo Terracciano is now a fitness doubt despite returning from his UEFA suspension.

Milan’s 3-4-2-1 gives them several ways to manipulate Udinese’s defensive structure. Adrien Rabiot and Christian Pulisic should operate behind Ramos, with the pair able to rotate positions and create overloads around the home side’s midfield four. Pulisic’s movement into the half-spaces could be particularly important if Udinese defend with a narrow block.

The midfield pairing of Yunus Musah and Luka Modric should provide a mixture of ball carrying and controlled distribution. Modric’s ability to dictate tempo could be especially valuable if Udinese sit deep. Milan’s wing-backs will also be crucial. Diego Moreira and Bartesaghi can push the Friuliani’s wide players backwards, creating a situation where the hosts are forced into a deeper defensive shape.

The potential weakness is transition defence. If both wing-backs advance simultaneously, the hosts can attack the spaces behind them. Milan therefore need the three centre-backs and midfielders to provide adequate cover. Ramos’s movement could be decisive at the other end. Rather than simply occupying Udinese’s centre-backs, he can drop away or run across the defensive line to create space for Pulisic and Rabiot.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic; Moreira, Musah, Modric, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Rabiot; Ramos

Key Stats

  • AC Milan are unbeaten in their opening seven Serie A matches, collecting 15 points under Ruben Amorim.
  • Udinese have lost five of their first seven Serie A games, their worst losing record at this stage since 2017/18.
  • Udinese have the league’s worst second-half goal difference at -8, having scored only twice after half-time.
  • Milan won both of their meetings with Udinese last year in Udine, by an aggregate score of 7-0.
  • Udinese beat Milan 3-0 at San Siro in April, ending the Rossoneri’s hopes of securing Champions League football and showing that this fixture can produce surprises despite the historical advantage.

Player to Watch

Christian Pulisic

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With Goncalo Ramos expected to lead the line and Milan rotating their attack, Pulisic’s ability to move between the wing and central areas could become one of the visitors’ biggest weapons.

Udinese’s three-man defence could struggle when Pulisic drifts into the half-spaces, particularly if their midfielders are drawn towards Adrien Rabiot or Luka Modric. His quick combinations and movement around Ramos can also create the space Milan need to attack through the centre.

There is an additional tactical reason to watch Pulisic. as Udinese have conceded heavily as matches progress, and Milan are likely to increase their attacking pressure in the second half. Pulisic’s ability to exploit tired defenders could therefore become increasingly important.

Prediction

Udinese Calcio 1-2 AC Milan

Udinese’s victory at San Siro in April proves that Milan cannot afford to underestimate them, but the wider form of the two teams points strongly towards the visitors. Milan have remained unbeaten domestically, possess considerably greater attacking depth and have an excellent recent record in Udine. The home side’s second-half struggles could ultimately prove decisive if they remain in contention early on.

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