Two winless starts and one chance to change the mood will be the theme of the game when Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest clash at Villa Park on Saturday.

Aston Villa’s first goal of the season finally arrived earlier this week, when Nicolas Jackson and John McGinn scored in a 3-2 win over Club Brugge in the UEFA Champions League. That ended the immediate frustration, but Nottingham Forest now bring a different version of the same problem to this meeting.

Nottingham Forest have two draws and a defeat from their opening Premier League outings, though they have scored two goals, unlike Aston Villa. The result matters to both sides as a meaningful momentum point rather than a mathematically decisive early-season verdict, but another failure would deepen the pressure around their winless starts.

For Aston Villa, a victory would ease the domestic strain after a scoreless beginning and give Unai Emery’s side something to build on while the squad continues to absorb ten new signings. A draw would offer limited relief, while defeat would leave the Premier League problems intact despite the European lift.

Villa’s recent four-match run has produced three goals and seven conceded, with one clean sheet, and their last domestic performance offered little attacking reward before the Club Brugge recovery. The side carries confidence from that midweek result, but the league output still needs to catch up with the chances that have been created. Joao Gomes’s suspension removes another midfield option, which could make the central balance more important than usual.

Nottingham Forest’s state is less urgent but still uncomfortable. They sit one point above Villa and need a result to prevent their own difficult opening from becoming a longer slide; victory would move them towards the projected European places, while another defeat would leave Oliver Glasner searching for answers in a rebuilding job.

Their recent three-match run has brought two goals and three conceded, including a draw last time out, and the attacking issue has been the failure to finish promising moves. James McAtee has supplied the clearest creative signal, but Forest still arrive with a need for the final action in the box rather than merely more intensity.

Team News: The predicted elevens and the missing midfield options

Aston Villa will be without Leon Goretzka and Amadou Onana through their respective knee injuries, while Joao Gomes is suspended. Brian Madjo is also unavailable, though he should return from an ankle complaint soon. Johan Manzambi is expected to return next week and Taylor Harwood-Bellis available for this fixture after his previous eligibility issue. The clearest effect is in midfield, where the projected pairing has to carry both the protective work and the first pass into Villa’s attacking line.

Villa should retain the 4-2-3-1 that Unai Emery tends to prefer. Zion Suzuki is expected to continue in goal behind Matty Cash, Victor Lindelof, Pau Torres and Ian Maatsen, with the latter’s recent run offering less reassurance than the rest of the backline. Meanwhile, Cash should return after missing the UEFA Champions League clash with Club Brugge due to a minor issue.

Ross Barkley and Boubacar Kamara should form the double pivot. Barkley has three starts, six key passes and one big chance created, giving Villa a route to connect the midfield with the attacking line, while Kamara will provide the defensive continuity Emery wants. The attacking quartet will feature George Hemmings, Emiliano Buendia, John McGinn, and Nicolas Jackson.

McGinn remains the established right-sided focal point despite having no goal contribution in his three Premier League starts. However, alongside Jackson, they will be high on confidence after their contribution towards Villa’s first win of the 2026/27 season.

Probable Aston Villa Lineup (4-2-3-1): Suzuki; Cash, Lindelof, Torres, Maatsen; Kamara, Barkley; McGinn, Buendia, Hemmings; Jackson

Probable Nottingham Forest Lineup (3-4-2-1): Sels; Cunha, Milenkovic, Murillo; Munoz, Schlager, McAtee, Williams; Jesus, Gibbs-White; Delap

Nottingham Forest are expected to use their settled 3-4-2-1. Matz Sels should remain behind Jair Cunha, Nikola Milenkovic, and Murillo, a back three in which Milenkovic has started all three matches and Murillo has posted a 6.85 average rating. Neco Williams and Daniel Munoz should be the wing-backs, with Williams bringing three key passes from his three starts.

As for the midfield unit, Xaver Schlager is likely to join James McAtee in the double pivot. McAtee has nine key passes and two big chances created in three starts, the clearest evidence for the creative responsibility he carries. Finally, Morgan Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus should play behind Liam Delap.

Gibbs-White has one goal, one assist, and a 7.13 average rating, while Jesus has also scored once. Delap has started twice, registered two shots on target from six attempts and will be asked to run beyond Villa’s centre-backs. Nicolo Savona is doubtful with a knee injury after setbacks in his rehabilitation, so his late status remains the only separate availability question around the away selection.

Tactics: Jackson meets the spare defender as Aston Villa face Nottingham Forest’s direct route

Aston Villa’s 4-2-3-1 is designed to keep two midfielders behind the attacking line while leaving Nicolas Jackson as the furthermost player. Nottingham Forest’s 3-4-2-1 does the opposite structurally. It places two attacking midfielders behind Liam Delap and keeps a spare centre-back in reserve. Both teams are expected to pursue a win without abandoning cover, so neither should be forced into an open game from the first whistle.

There is a clear difference in how the early phases may develop. Villa have held 39% possession per match and Nottingham Forest 41%, both below the 44% league typical figure. The more important contrast is the direct route.

The Villans have played 40 long balls per match against a typical 49, while Forest have played 70 against that same 49. Those figures come from three matches, so they describe the current opening rather than a settled season-long identity. However, these fixtures still explain why Forest are more likely to test Villa early with deliveries beyond the midfield.

That route asks Aston Villa’s double pivot to compete for second balls and prevent Nottingham Forest’s direct attacks from becoming a sustained effort. The away side’s shape can then keep Morgan Gibbs-White and James McAtee close enough to Delap for the next phase, while Villa’s lower directness means their attacks are more dependent on John McGinn, Emiliano Buendia, and Nicolas Jackson connecting through the middle.

Forest’s measured set-piece threat is also higher. They have generated 0.712 expected goals from dead balls per match against a league typical 0.208, while Aston Villa have produced 0.129 against the same reference. That gives the visitors a second way to threaten without taking unnecessary risks in open play.

The main contest is Nicolas Jackson against Nikola Milenkovic. Jackson has to occupy the central three and make Aston Villa’s attacking structure meaningful; Milenkovic has to contain him without being dragged away from the spare-defender role that protects Forest’s result-managing shape.

If Jackson pins or moves his marker, Forest lose the extra central defender that allows them to support the direct route while protecting a draw. If Milenkovic keeps Jackson contained, Villa lose their central reference and may be pushed towards a more hurried and exposed attack. The contest is sharpened by the contrasting current trends. Jackson has been steady, while Milenkovic has been in stronger form.

John McGinn against Neco Williams is the secondary route into the same problem. If McGinn breaks the left-sided wing-back connection, Forest must spend more of their structure protecting that channel and have less freedom to support Delap’s direct runs.

If Williams contains McGinn, Villa may struggle to create the width and link play needed to sustain pressure without moving too many bodies forward. Behind both battles sits the broader second-ball question. Forest want the first delivery to create the next attack, while the home side need to win the next contact and keep the game inside their controlled shape.

Prediction: A draw is the safer read in a low-conversion meeting

We are leaning towards a draw, but only with low confidence. Aston Villa have enough attacking evidence to score, yet not enough recent league production to justify taking them as a firm home winner. Their attack has generated 1.09 expected goals per match across the four-game window at the onset of the 2026/27 season, while Forest have conceded 1.29 expected goals per match across their latest three.

That gives Villa a route into the game, but the central evidence points to a side still failing to turn opportunity into Premier League goals. The strongest case against the draw is that Villa finally convert the pressure they have been creating.

Nicolas Jackson could pull Nikola Milenkovic out of the back three, John McGinn could force Neco Williams deeper, and an early goal would make Forest leave the cautious version of their structure. The visitors’ direct game would then become less comfortable, particularly if Villa’s midfield wins the second ball and prevents James McAtee and Morgan Gibbs-White from receiving the next pass in useful areas. That is the clearest route to a home win.

Lean: Draw

Scoreline: 1-1/0-0/2-2

Forest, however, have the better platform for keeping the contest close. Their back three can leave a spare defender against Jackson, their long passing can bypass Villa’s midfield, and their dead-ball threat gives them a scoring route without sustained possession.

The low-conversion pattern on both sides makes 1-1 the central scoreline, with 0-0 and 2-2 also fitting the likely range in the match. The draw is the value market worth pointing at; the outright result market does not offer a strong enough reason to oppose that lean.