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West Ham United vs Derby County: Preview and Prediction

West Ham United will look to make it back-to-back Championship victories when they welcome Derby County to the London Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The Hammers finally secured their first league win of the campaign in midweek, while Derby also enter the fixture on the back of their first victory of the season. Both sides therefore have renewed confidence, although their ambitions for the campaign are considerably different.

West Ham’s opening weeks of the Championship campaign have been surprisingly inconsistent given their status as one of the promotion favourites. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side went three league matches without a victory, drawing twice and losing once, before finally producing the kind of attacking performance expected from their expensive squad.

The Hammers defeated Wolves 4-0 at the London Stadium, with Manchester City loanee Divine Mukasa announcing himself to the home supporters by scoring twice from distance. That victory took West Ham’s tally to an impressive 15 goals across their opening six competitive matches.

West Ham have not kept a single clean sheet this season, suggesting that their defensive structure has not yet reached the level required for a sustained promotion challenge. The club responded before the transfer deadline by bringing in Adama Boiro and Morato. If those additions can improve the defence without compromising their attacking output, West Ham should become an extremely difficult team to stop.

Derby County’s start has been considerably less convincing and John Eustace’s side endured a four-game winless run across the Championship and EFL Cup before finally breaking through with a 2-0 victory away to Portsmouth on Tuesday. Sammie Szmodics opened the scoring before substitute Lars-Jorgen Salvesen sealed the points, giving Derby their first victory of the campaign.

The result moves Derby up to 16th, just two points behind eighth-placed Birmingham City, illustrating how congested the Championship table remains in the early stages. Eustace has also strengthened his squad with familiar faces.

Eiran Cashin and David Ozoh returned to Pride Park before the transfer deadline, while Mohammed Fuseini arrived after his proposed move to Birmingham collapsed. The Rams will hope that those additions can help stabilise a defence affected by injuries. Derby’s challenge at the London Stadium will be considerably tougher than their trip to Portsmouth.

West Ham have already demonstrated their attacking potential, and their four-goal performance against Wolves suggests confidence is beginning to return. The Rams will need to remain compact and avoid conceding possession in dangerous central areas. West Ham’s ability to score from distance adds another problem, particularly if Derby allow their midfielders too much space outside the penalty area.

Derby’s best route to success should be through counter-attacks and Szmodics’s movement can cause problems between the lines, while Salvesen offers a physical presence further forward. If Derby can absorb pressure and attack quickly when West Ham’s full-backs advance, opportunities should emerge.

West Ham’s inability to keep a clean sheet means the visitors should believe they can score, even if they are likely to spend long periods without possession. That could make this a more competitive encounter than the respective league positions might suggest. West Ham’s attacking quality should eventually create enough opportunities, but their defensive vulnerability means Nuno’s side cannot afford to switch off. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

West Ham United

West Ham could make a change at right-back after Kyle Walker-Peters was substituted before the hour mark during Tuesday’s 4-2 victory over Wolves. Joel Veltman is therefore in contention to replace him in the starting XI.

The biggest selection decision comes further forward, where Divine Mukasa has given Nuno Espirito Santo a strong reason to keep him in the side. The Manchester City loanee scored twice against Wolves, including an excellent long-range opener, and his performance could earn him another start.

Arne Engels should continue alongside Mukasa in central midfield, giving West Ham a young and energetic partnership. Mukasa’s ability to carry the ball forward also allows Engels greater freedom to contribute to the build-up. Up front, Joel Piroe is expected to retain his place, with Pablo supporting him. Valentin Castellanos, who started earlier in the campaign, could again find himself among the substitutes after being left out of the starting XI against Wolves.

West Ham are expected to line up in a 4-4-2, with Mads Hermansen in goal. Veltman, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Maximilian Kilman and Oliver Scarles should form the defensive line. Jarrod Bowen and Manor Solomon provide the width, while Mukasa and Engels operate centrally. The attacking pair of Pablo and Piroe gives West Ham a combination of movement and Championship experience.

The Hammers will be encouraged by their 4-2 victory over Wolves, but the two goals conceded again pinpoint their defensive vulnerability. Nuno will want his side to maintain their attacking aggression while showing greater control without possession.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Hermansen; Veltman, Mavropanos, Kilman, Scarles; Bowen, Mukasa, Engels, Solomon; Pablo, Piroe

Derby County

Derby County could be forced into another defensive change, with Craig Forsyth a doubt after being substituted during Tuesday’s victory at Portsmouth. His potential absence would further test a backline already affected by injuries.

John Eustace is expected to retain a 4-5-1 formation, with Jacob Widell Zetterstrom in goal. Joe Ward, Dion Sanderson, Sondre Langas, and Charlie Taylor should form the defensive line, although Eiran Cashin is another option following his deadline-day return.

The midfield should feature Oscar Fraulo, Alex Mowatt, and Ryan Hedges, with Bobby Clark and Sammie Szmodics operating in more advanced positions. Szmodics enters the game with confidence after scoring in the 2-0 victory at Portsmouth. Mohammed Fuseini is expected to begin on the bench. His arrival adds another attacking option, but Eustace is unlikely to disrupt the attacking combination that helped Derby secure their first win of the campaign.

Up front, Lars-Jorgen Salvesen should lead the line after coming off the bench to score Derby’s second goal against Portsmouth. Derby’s priority will be defensive discipline. A compact midfield five should allow them to frustrate West Ham and limit the space available to players such as Divine Mukasa and Jarrod Bowen. The visitors will then look to transition quickly through Szmodics and Hedges.

However, Forsyth’s potential absence is a concern against a West Ham attack that has already scored 15 goals across six competitive matches. Derby will need to defend particularly well in the wide areas and prevent West Ham from creating repeated crosses and cut-backs. The Rams can take confidence from their victory at Portsmouth, but the London Stadium presents a substantially tougher challenge. Their ability to remain compact for 90 minutes could determine whether they can take anything from the game.

Probable Lineup (4-5-1): Zetterstrom; Ward, Sanderson, Langas, Taylor; Fraulo, Mowatt, Hedges, Clark, Szmodics; Salvesen

Key Stats

  • West Ham United have scored 15 goals in their opening six competitive matches this season.
  • The Hammers finally secured their first Championship win on Tuesday, beating Wolves 4-2 at the London Stadium after beginning the league campaign with two draws and a defeat.
  • West Ham have yet to keep a clean sheet in the Championship this season, conceding in each of their first four league matches.
  • Derby County have scored only five goals in their opening four Championship matches, compared with West Ham’s eight.
  • West Ham have won five of their last seven meetings with Derby.

Player to Watch

Divine Mukasa

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The 19-year-old produced a sensational performance against Wolves in midweek, scoring twice in West Ham’s 4-2 victory to help the Hammers secure their first Championship win of the season. Mukasa’s first goal was particularly impressive, with the teenager finding the top corner from around 25 yards. He then struck again after the interval, showing the confidence and attacking instinct that West Ham will want to see more of.

His performance has also created a genuine selection dilemma for Nuno Espirito Santo. Mukasa had only made his second Championship appearance against Wolves, but his two-goal display makes it difficult to leave him out against Derby. Against a Derby side expected to defend in a compact 4-5-1, Mukasa’s ability to operate centrally, carry the ball and shoot from distance could be particularly valuable.

If Derby sit deep and deny West Ham space inside the penalty area, Mukasa’s willingness to attack from outside the box gives the hosts another route to goal. With Jarrod Bowen, Arne Engels and Joël Piroe around him, Mukasa should have plenty of attacking support. After his breakthrough performance against Wolves, another influential display could establish him as an important part of West Ham’s promotion campaign.

Prediction

West Ham United 3-1 Derby County

Derby’s victory at Portsmouth will have restored some confidence, but facing West Ham at the London Stadium represents a major step up in quality. The Hammers finally looked close to their best in the 4-0 win over Wolves, and their attacking numbers have been impressive throughout the opening weeks.

Derby can cause problems on the counter and may exploit West Ham’s ongoing defensive issues, but the hosts should have too much quality across the pitch. The Hard Tackle predicts a 3-1 win for Nuno Espirito Santo and his charges.

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