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US Lecce vs AS Roma: Preview and Prediction

AS Roma will look to maintain their excellent start to the new Serie A season when they travel south to face Lecce at the Stadio Via del Mare on Monday.

Both teams collected maximum points on the opening weekend, but Roma arrive as clear favourites after dismantling Fiorentina, while Lecce had to withstand considerable pressure before emerging victorious against newly promoted Venezia.

Roma could hardly have produced a more impressive opening performance  and after finishing third and securing Champions League qualification during Gian Piero Gasperini’s first season, expectations have increased significantly around the capital club. Their response was emphatic, sweeping Fiorentina aside 4-0 at Stadio Olimpico.

The outstanding performer was Donyell Malen, whose remarkable form since arriving in Italy continued with a clinical hat-trick. Yet Paulo Dybala was equally influential. The Argentine supplied the assist for all three of Malen’s goals, with the pair demonstrating an understanding that could make Roma’s attack particularly difficult to contain this season. Nicolò Pisilli subsequently added the fourth.

That performance was also reassuring following an inconsistent pre-season. With Champions League football soon adding further demands to their schedule, Gasperini needs his team operating at full intensity from the beginning of the domestic campaign.

Lecce also arrive with confidence after beginning their campaign with an important away victory over Venezia. Their 2-0 win was not quite as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. The newly promoted club controlled substantial periods of possession and had two goals disallowed, but Eusebio Di Francesco’s team remained organised before taking their opportunities in the second half.

Including the end of last season, Lecce have now recorded three successive Serie A victories, equalling their best-ever winning sequence in the competition. Another victory on Monday would carry even greater significance: Lecce have never won their opening two fixtures of a Serie A season. Doing so against Roma, however, represents an entirely different challenge.

Recent meetings provide little encouragement for the Salentini and Roma have won the last three encounters between these sides without conceding, while Lecce’s most recent league victory over the Giallorossi came all the way back in April 2012.

Di Francesco has faced his former club 16 times as a Serie A coach and collected only three points, losing each of his last 10 league meetings with Roma. That does not mean Lecce are incapable of making this uncomfortable. Playing at the Via del Mare, Di Francesco will almost certainly prioritise defensive organisation and attempt to restrict the spaces in which Dybala operates. If Lecce can frustrate Roma early, the home crowd could become increasingly influential.

Malen and Dybala pose a major problem. The former provides the penetration, pace and ruthless finishing, while the latter can move away from the front line to receive possession between midfield and defence. Their contrasting movements can create uncertainty for centre-backs over whether to step forward or protect the space behind them.

Gasperini’s system should also ensure Roma attack with numbers. His teams are typically aggressive in possession, with midfield runners and wide players constantly looking to occupy advanced areas. Lecce therefore cannot afford to defend passively for the entire match.

They will need moments of controlled possession and must exploit the spaces Roma inevitably leave when committing players forward. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

US Lecce

Lecce have a couple of fitness concerns ahead of AS Roma’s visit. Antonino Gallo is doubtful after being forced off during the 2-0 victory over Venezia following a heavy blow to his cheekbone. Corrie Ndaba replaced him and is ready to deputise at left-back if Gallo is not cleared. Midfielder Medon Berisha is also considered doubtful due to physical discomfort.

Eusebio Di Francesco should continue with his preferred 4-3-3 formation, with captain Wladimiro Falcone in goal. Danilo Veiga should start at right-back, while Kialonda Gaspar and Tiago Gabriel form the central defensive partnership. Assuming Gallo is unavailable, Ndaba should complete the back four on the left.

The midfield trio will have a major defensive responsibility against Roma. Lassana Coulibaly provides physicality and ball-winning ability, while Oumar Ngom should help protect the defence and disrupt Roma’s combinations through central areas. Olaf Gorter, who scored the opener against Venezia, offers greater licence to move forward and support attacks.

In attack, summer signing Willem Geubbels should continue as the central striker as he searches for his first competitive Lecce goal. The Frenchman will be flanked by Santiago Pierotti on the right and Konan N’Dri on the left. Both wide players will need to contribute defensively before using their pace to attack the spaces Roma leave when pushing numbers forward.

Di Francesco is unlikely to engage Roma in an open contest. Lecce averaged only 0.7 goals per Serie A game last season, so their priority should be keeping the match compact and creating opportunities through transitions rather than attempting to dominate possession.

The midfield three will consequently need to remain disciplined and prevent Paulo Dybala from receiving freely between the lines. When possession is recovered, Lecce should look to release Pierotti and N’Dri quickly before Roma can restore their defensive structure, with Geubbels providing the central target.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Falcone; Veiga, Gaspar, Gabriel, Ndaba; Ngom, Coulibaly, Gorter; Pierotti, Geubbels, N’Dri

AS Roma

Roma should have a largely settled squad available, although there are a few selection questions. Devyne Rensch has been dealing with a flexor problem, while Robinio Vaz has missed training as he edges closer to a move to Hull City. Summer arrivals Santiago Castro, Rodrigo Mora, Konstantinos Koulierakis and Nahuel Molina all provide Gian Piero Gasperini with greater depth, but the successful attacking partnership of Donyell Malen and Paulo Dybala is expected to continue.

Gasperini is likely to retain his preferred 3-4-2-1 formation, with Mile Svilar in goal behind a back three of Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, and Mario Hermoso. Mancini should operate on the right of the defensive trio, Ndicka centrally, and Hermoso on the left, with all three comfortable stepping forward when Roma build from the back.

The wing-back positions will be crucial to Roma’s attacking structure. Emanuele Lulli impressed sufficiently to start ahead of Molina against Fiorentina and may keep his place on the right, while Wesley should provide width and attacking thrust on the opposite flank. With Roma expected to dominate possession, both will be encouraged to advance high and pin Lecce’s wingers deeper.

In central midfield, Manu Kone and Bryan Cristante should provide the balance. Cristante is likely to sit slightly deeper and protect against transitions, while Kone can carry the ball forward and support Roma’s pressure around the final third.

Further forward, Rodrigo Mora should operate in one of the two attacking midfield roles alongside Paulo Dybala, just behind Donyell Malen. Dybala will again be the creative reference point, drifting between the lines and looking to release Malen into scoring positions. Their understanding was devastating against Fiorentina, with Dybala supplying all three assists for Malen’s hat-trick.

Roma’s tactical approach should revolve around sustained territorial pressure, aggressive wing-back positioning and constant rotations between Dybala, Mora, and Malen. Lecce are likely to defend compactly, so Roma will need patience rather than simply forcing the ball centrally. If Lulli and Wesley can stretch the hosts’ defensive line, Dybala should find more room in the half-spaces.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Lulli, Kone, Cristante, Wesley; Mora, Dybala; Malen

Key Stats

  • AS Roma have won each of their last three Serie A meetings with Lecce without conceding a single goal.
  • Lecce have not beaten Roma in Serie A since April 2012.
  • AS Roma enter the contest on a six-match Serie A winning streak.
  • Lecce have won three consecutive Serie A matches stretching back into last season, equalling their longest-ever winning run in the Italian top flight.
  • Donyell Malen scored a hat-trick in Roma’s 4-0 opening-day victory over Fiorentina.

Player to Watch

Donyell Malen

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Donyell Malen is the obvious player to watch after beginning the new Serie A season in spectacular fashion. The Dutch forward scored a hat-trick in Roma’s 4-0 victory over Fiorentina, needing only 68 minutes to complete his treble.

His form since moving to Italy has been exceptional. The Dutchman has now scored 17 goals in his first 19 Serie A appearances for Roma, surpassing Gabriel Batistuta’s tally of 15 after the same number of league appearances for the club.

Just as importantly, his partnership with Paulo Dybala is beginning to look formidable. Dybala assisted all three of Malen’s goals against Fiorentina, with the Argentine dropping into pockets between the lines before finding Malen’s runs behind the defence. Against a Lecce side likely to defend compactly, Malen’s movement could be crucial. His ability to attack the space between centre-back and full-back gives Roma a direct threat even when opponents congest central areas.

Prediction

US Lecce 0-2 AS Roma

Lecce deserve respect after putting together three consecutive Serie A victories, and their ability to survive difficult periods against Venezia suggests Roma should not expect an effortless evening. Nevertheless, the visitors possess significantly greater attacking quality.

Roma have now won six successive Serie A matches stretching back into last season, while their recent dominance of this fixture is difficult to overlook. Donyell Malen’s explosive start and Paulo Dybala’s creativity provide Gian Piero Gasperini with two potential match-winners capable of unlocking a compact defensive block. Lecce may keep the contest competitive for long periods, particularly at home, but Roma should eventually find a way through.

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