Spain’s preparations for the 2026 World Cup are starting to gear up, as La Roja bids to improve on its Round of 16 performance in 2022. Having won Euro 2024, and boasting some of the best players in the world, there is hope that this summer will be memorable from a team and individual point of view.

Many regard Luis de la Fuente’s side not only as the favourites for the competition, but also for honours such as the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot. However, nothing is guaranteed at the World Cup, especially with so much talent on show.

A closer look at prediction markets reveals how much faith the public has in Spain. Markets involving La Roja are set to become increasingly active throughout the World Cup, and those who want to enhance their understanding of the tournament can check out tools such as a strategy guide to prediction markets, which will equip you with the knowledge to make the most of your experience.

At their core, they indicate the implied probability of an event happening. So can see how traders rate Spain’s chances at the 2026 World Cup in comparison to others. 

Markets now have France as tournament favorites 

Although Spain is regarded as one of the main contenders for the trophy this summer, confidence among traders on prediction markets is shifting. In 2026, the probability of de la Fuente’s side winning the competition peaked at nearly 19%, but has now steadily dropped down to 16%.

Meanwhile, confidence in France has rapidly increased, rising by 7% since the end of March 2026. Now the perceived favorites at 18%, it’s hardly surprising that people rate Les Bleus’ chances so highly, given that they have reached the final in each of the last two World Cups, winning in 2018.

Based on current probabilities, traders would be surprised to see any other nation win the tournament. England has been given an 11% chance, while Argentina and Brazil are not thought to be as strong as the three European countries. 

Lamine Yamal to rival trio for Golden Ball 

Awarded to the best player at the tournament since 1982, several players are hoping to follow in the footsteps of Lionel Messi and win the 2026 Golden Ball. Spain’s best chance of success is Lamine Yamal, but the Barcelona star isn’t considered an outright favorite for the prize.

Instead, he, Kylian Mbappe, and Michael Olise have all been given a 10% chance of winning the award. That might be surprising for some, considering that the trio are playing for the two tournament favorites and have been standout players at their respective clubs.

However, it’s England’s Harry Kane who is currently the slight favorite for the Golden Ball this summer at 12%. The Bayern Munich striker has been in formidable form, scoring 58 goals across all competitions in the 2025/26 season. If that continues at the World Cup, he’ll be hard to ignore for the prize. 

Spain duo given low chance of winning Golden Boot 

Given Kane’s form, it’s not surprising to see that he’s one of the top contenders for the World Cup Golden Boot. He already finished as the competition’s top goalscorer in 2018, and is hoping to win his second prize.

However, Mbappe is favored slightly on prediction markets. He’s been given a 15% chance, while Kane currently sits on 14%. The two are the clear favorites, with Erling Haaland sitting way behind at 7% as Norway is not expected to advance to the latter stages of the competition – but how do Spain’s best hopes compare?

Lamine Yamal is once again considered its best chance for the award, but with his probability standing at 6%, he’s not thought of as a front-runner. He’s expected to miss the opening game of the World Cup and potentially other matches too, which will mean he’s playing catch-up in the scoring charts.

Consequently, the Barcelona star has the same probability of winning the Golden Boot as Mikel Oyarzabal. The Real Sociedad forward has been in good form, scoring 18 times this season, but still is not considered a threat to the likes of Mbappe and Kane.