Five of the mouthwatering clashes in the Champions League round or 16s to look forward to including a ‘dark horse’ derby.

The Champions League draw has done that thing it always does at this stage: turn March into a month of familiar grudges, new temptations, and one or two ties that could quietly swallow a giant whole. UEFA’s round-of-16 bracket has thrown up PSG vs Chelsea, Real Madrid vs Manchester City, Atlético de Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United vs Barcelona, and Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting CP among the headline pairings on the road to Budapest.

The first legs land across 10–11 March, with the return games on 17–18 March, and the prize for surviving isn’t just a quarter-final; it is a place in a pre-mapped route where every winner can already see the next obstacle. PSG/Chelsea, for instance, are set on a quarter-final collision course with Galatasaray/Liverpool, while the City/Madrid winner would run into Atalanta/Bayern. Elsewhere, Newcastle/Barcelona feed into Atletico/Spurs, and Bodo/Glimt/Sporting would meet Leverkusen/Arsenal.

It’s neat on paper, ruthless in reality and with the final booked for 30 May in Budapest, the draw has also made one thing clear: there’s no “easy side” of this bracket, only different kinds of discomfort.

Chelsea vs PSG: CWC rematch on the cards?

This is a rematch with fresh scars, because Chelsea and PSG are still living in the shadow of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final. Chelsea 3-0 PSG, settled by a Cole Palmer double and a João Pedro goal. That scoreline won’t decide this tie, but it shapes the mood: Chelsea know they can hurt PSG on the biggest stage, and PSG know exactly what a bad night against English intensity can look like.

On paper, PSG’s case is simple: more European experience deep into spring, more comfort controlling games, and, crucially, 90-minute spells where they can suffocate transitions and force you to defend longer than you want.

The key for Chelsea is whether they can make it a two-legged sprint rather than a two-legged chess match: aggressive pressing, quick outlets, and turning the home second leg into something emotional and fast. The schedule tells you where the pressure point is. PSG host the first leg, Chelsea host the second at Stamford Bridge. So the first 90 minutes in Paris could decide how brave both sides are allowed to be in London.

If you’re picking who “should” go through, PSG look slightly better built for the slow grind of knockout football. But the Club World Cup final showed Chelsea can land clean punches when the game opens up, and knockout ties love a team that doesn’t need control to create danger.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid: A rivalry with recent familiarity

Some rivalries feel forced; this one feels inevitable. The draw has City and Madrid together again, and the broader storyline is that it’s now the fourth straight season they’ve met in a Champions League knockout round. Even their league-phase meeting earlier in the campaign had the same energy; Manchester City won 2-1 at the Bernabéu on 10 December.

The usual temptation is to call this a 50–50 and move on, but the margins are clearer than that. City’s best path is the one they always prefer: win territory, pin Madrid’s wide players deep, and turn the tie into long spells of pressure that eventually break your legs.

Madrid’s best path is also familiar: accept that they won’t dominate the ball for 180 minutes, then choose the moments to turn the game into chaos with quick breaks, big-game finishing, and that calm they always seem to find when the noise rises.

The small structural detail matters here too: Madrid host the first leg, City host the second. If City can keep the first game “alive” rather than chase it, the return at the Etihad becomes an advantage; if Madrid can leave Manchester with a lead, it becomes the kind of tie they’ve historically loved.

For all the unpredictability these two bring out in each other, City feel marginally stronger over two legs because their baseline control is higher—but Madrid don’t need to be better for longer, only better in the decisive minutes

Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham: The battle of the underperforming giants

This is the kind of tie that looks like a grind from the moment it’s printed. Atletico arrive via a noisy playoff: they beat Club Brugge 7-4 on aggregate, including a 4-1 second-leg win.

The fixture list also tells you where the second-leg pressure sits; Tottenham host the return in London after Atletico host the first leg in Madrid.

For Spurs, the opportunity is psychological as much as tactical. Atletico are built to make you doubt your own patience: they’ll invite you forward, protect central areas, and try to turn your attacks into the very transitions that decide European ties.

Spurs can absolutely spring a surprise if they treat the first leg as a chance to stay connected and alive—no silly losses of shape, no gift-wrapped counterattacks—and then use the second leg to push the game into a higher tempo.

For Atletico, this competition has always been about survival skills: understanding ugly moments, finding one goal in a bad spell, and trusting their structure when the opponent starts to panic. Over two legs, that experience gives them a slight edge—but Tottenham hosting the second match means this could swing hard on one early goal either way.

Newcastle United vs Barcelona: An underdog in the making?

It’s easy to label this “under the radar” because it isn’t a traditional Champions League pairing, but it has the exact ingredients that create an upset: a hungry home atmosphere in the first leg, and a giant that can’t afford a sleepy 45 minutes. Newcastle host Barcelona first, and Barcelona host the second leg.

Barcelona will remind themselves they’ve already won at Newcastle this season—2-1 in the league phase on 18 September. Newcastle, though, will point to their own European evidence: they drew 1-1 with PSG in Paris in the league phase, proof they can survive away days against elite opposition without shrinking. The playoff round also showed their attacking edge over two legs, as they beat Qarabağ 9-3 on aggregate.

On paper, Barcelona still have more ways to win: they can dominate possession, they can manage the rhythm, and they have enough individual quality to decide tight games.

Newcastle’s best chance is to make the first leg uncomfortable with high energy, direct moments, set-piece threat and arrive at the second leg with the tie still within one big moment. If Barcelona underestimate them, the punishment won’t need to be constant; it only needs to be timely.

Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting CP: The ‘Dark Horse’ Derby?

Call it the Dark Horse Derby if you want; this is the tie where both clubs can look at the bracket and genuinely believe a run is there. The draw pairs Bodo/Glimt with Sporting, with the first leg in Norway and the second in Lisbon.

Bodo/Glimt have earned their reputation the loud way: they knocked out Inter in the playoff round, winning 5-2 on aggregate, including a 3-1 first-leg result at home. Sporting, meanwhile, have shown they can handle elite company too; one of their standout league-phase results was a 2-1 win over PSG in January. So this isn’t “cute underdogs”; it’s two teams who’ve already put serious dents in bigger names.

The question is whose strengths translate more cleanly across two legs. Bodo/Glimt at home can turn games into a surge with tempo, confidence, and the feeling that you’re always one mistake away from conceding.

Sporting may be better equipped for the away-leg management: calming the game, choosing when to press, and using the second leg at home to squeeze the life out of the tie. If you’re picking a dark horse to go further, Sporting’s second-leg advantage and overall control profile makes them slightly safer—but Bodø/Glimt have already shown they don’t care what “safe” looks like.