FC Cincinnati will face Inter Miami as the MLS Eastern Conference semi-finals kick off this weekend.

The MLS post-season has reached its decisive phase, and Sunday’s Eastern Conference semi-final pits a well-drilled FC Cincinnati against an unpredictable but dangerous Inter Miami side. With the fixture functioning as a straight knockout, extra time and penalties awaiting if required, the margin for error is almost nonexistent.

For Cincinnati, this marks only the second time in their history that they have reached this stage, while Inter Miami arrive with a season’s worth of frustrations to channel into one defining performance. Cincinnati booked their place in the semi-finals by edging past Columbus Crew in a tense installment of the “Hell is Real” rivalry.

The Garys ultimately won the best-of-three series 2-1, and their progression again underlined a telling pattern: their home form remains the cornerstone of their identity. Both victories came at TQL Stadium, while their lone defeat arrived on the road, a contrast that Pat Noonan must consider carefully heading into the weekend.

Their broader season tells a similar tale. Cincinnati finished second in the Eastern Conference with an impressive 20 wins, yet their dominance seldom displayed itself in the scoreline. Sixteen of those victories were sealed by a single-goal margin, and both playoff wins against Columbus followed the same script.

Noonan’s side are compact, committed, and difficult to break down, but not a team that typically dictates the tempo or overwhelms opponents. Instead, they rely heavily on decisive bursts of individual quality, flashes of creativity that often paper over their lack of sustained control.

Still, Cincinnati should take confidence into this clash. They remain unbeaten against Inter Miami this season, including a commanding 3-0 win in the reverse fixture, which remains one of their most complete performances of 2024. With a place in the conference final, effectively the MLS playoff semi-final, on the line, the Orange and Blue know that another gritty, focused display will be required.

Inter Miami’s journey to this stage has been turbulent. Since their chaotic 5-3 home defeat to Chicago in October, Javier Mascherano has subtly reshaped his starting XI, introducing a touch more balance and drawing better performances from his squad.

Their two home victories over Nashville SC showcased Miami at their vibrant best, scoring seven goals across the two legs. Yet the away defeat in between served as a reminder that this team remains wildly inconsistent, particularly when removed from the comforts of DRV PNK Stadium.

The stakes could not be clearer for the Herons. They have already lost the Leagues Cup final, fallen short in the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Champions Cup, and missed out on the Supporters’ Shield by a solitary point. With no trophies secured, this postseason represents their final shot at tangible success in 2024.

That desperation may well fuel them. Inter Miami possess the third-most potent attack in MLS history by expected goals per game, a statistic that reflects not only their chance creation but the sheer volume of talent in their forward line.

Their defensive structure remains suspect, but the team’s belief and urgency have grown as the playoffs have progressed. Miami enter this match as underdogs on paper, something that may actually suit them, especially given their ability to turn chaotic moments into goals.

They have not won away at Cincinnati since 2021, but given the quality and experience within Mascherano’s squad, the visitors are fully capable of tearing up that history if they can withstand the inevitable early pressure from Noonan’s team. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News & Tactics

FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati enter this semi-final with several fitness concerns that could influence Pat Noonan’s selection. Ender Echenique is expected to miss the match after suffering a knee injury while on international duty, leaving the squad without one of its most versatile attacking options.

Brad Smith remains unavailable as he continues his recovery from a long-term issue, and central defender Matt Miazga is still working his way back from injury, offering Noonan no guarantee of involvement. Cincinnati do not have any suspensions, but the absence of these key figures does narrow the tactical choices available to the coaching staff.

The responsibility for driving Cincinnati’s offensive output therefore falls firmly on the shoulders of their front trio. Evander has been the heartbeat of the side throughout the regular season, contributing an exceptional 18 goals and 15 assists, and consistently producing moments of match-winning brilliance.

His set-piece threat has been particularly significant, including three goals from free kicks, making him a constant danger even when space is tight. Brenner arrives in excellent form after scoring twice in the previous playoff round, and Kevin Denkey brings strength, vertical movement and a reliable penalty-box presence. Together, they provide the balance of creativity, pace and finishing power that Cincinnati depend on.

Defensively, Miles Robinson will be central to Cincinnati’s attempts to keep Inter Miami’s high-powered attack quiet. The USMNT defender is not only the leader of the backline but also the team’s most reliable one-on-one stopper. Behind him, goalkeeper Roman Celentano continues to grow into one of the league’s most dependable shot-stoppers, and his command of the penalty area could prove decisive in a fixture where fine margins often dictate the result.

Cincinnati are expected to deploy a 3-4-1-2 formation, a setup that allows them to maintain defensive solidity while ensuring Evander receives the freedom he needs to influence the match. Roman Celentano will start in goal, providing security and composure from the back. The defensive trio should consist of Teenage Hadebe on the left, Miles Robinson in the central role, and Lukas Engel on the right. Hadebe offers recovery pace, Robinson anchors the unit with his experience, and Engel provides balance with his positioning and distribution.

Across midfield, Alvas Powell is set to operate as the right wing-back, offering direct running and defensive coverage, while Luca Orellano patrols the left, stretching play and supporting wide transitions. In the central positions, Samuel Gidi will act as the primary ball-winner, breaking up play and protecting the defence, while Pavel Bucha brings midfield control and forward passing to help initiate attacks.

Evander will occupy the No. 10 role just behind the forwards, drifting between lines to connect phases and exploit gaps in Inter Miami’s shape. Ahead of him, Brenner and Kevin Denkey form the strike partnership, with Brenner responsible for link-up play and intelligent movement, while Denkey provides physical presence and direct threat inside the box.

Probable Lineup (3-4-1-2): Celentano; Hadebe, Robinson, Engel; Powell, Gidi, Bucha, Orellano; Evander; Brenner, Denkey

Inter Miami

Inter Miami arrive in Cincinnati with no major new injuries or suspensions, giving Javier Mascherano the luxury of fielding his strongest possible XI at a crucial stage of the post-season. The squad has benefited from greater stability in recent weeks, and aside from a few minor knocks picked up during the Nashville series, Miami are expected to have all key attacking figures available for selection. This continuity allows Mascherano to maintain the balance that has guided his team through the previous round with confidence.

As ever, the team’s hopes rest heavily on the brilliance of Lionel Messi. The Argentine captain was nothing short of devastating in the best-of-three triumph over Nashville SC, producing five goals and three assists across the series. His ability to shift momentum in a matter of seconds remains unmatched in MLS, and Cincinnati’s defense will be acutely aware that even brief lapses can prove catastrophic when Messi is involved.

Yet Messi is not carrying the burden alone. Tadeo Allende has emerged as a powerful supporting force, scoring three goals and adding an assist against Nashville, showcasing the aggressive running and sharp finishing that perfectly complement Messi’s creativity. Rodrigo De Paul has also elevated his form significantly over the past two months, providing control, intensity and relentless work rate in central areas. His presence alongside Sergio Busquets offers Miami both structure and bite, essential qualities against one of the league’s most disciplined home sides.

Inter Miami are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 system, a shape designed to maximise Lionel Messi’s influence between the lines while ensuring defensive cover behind him. Rocco Rios Novo will take his place in goal, tasked with managing transitions and distributing quickly to launch counterattacks. In defense, Ian Fray will operate at right-back, Tomas Aviles partners Noah Allen in central defence, and Jordi Alba starts at left-back, providing experience and attacking width.

The double pivot consists of Sergio Busquets and Rodrigo De Paul. Busquets orchestrates play from deep, dictating tempo and guiding the team’s positional structure, while De Paul’s energy and forward surges ensure Miami maintain verticality and second-ball strength.

Ahead of them, the attacking trio offers fluidity and unpredictability. Tadeo Allende will feature on the right wing, drifting inside to combine with Messi and exploit gaps in Cincinnati’s midfield. Lionel Messi occupies the central attacking midfield role, roaming freely to create overloads, slip passes into narrow channels, and dictate attacking patterns. Baltasar Rodriguez will operate on the left, offering direct dribbling and diagonal runs that stretch Cincinnati’s backline.

Luis Suarez leads the line as the lone striker. Despite being used selectively throughout the season, his movement inside the box and understanding with Messi remain invaluable. Suarez’s ability to finish half-chances or hold up play will be crucial as Miami attempt to unlock one of MLS’s best defensive units.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Rios; Fray, Falcon, Allen, Alba; Busquets, De Paul; Allende, Messi, Rodriguez; Suarez

Key Stats

• Sixteen of FC Cincinnati’s twenty regular-season victories came by a single-goal margin, and both of their playoff wins over Columbus Crew followed the same pattern. No team in MLS relied more heavily on narrow, grind-it-out results this year.
• Evander’s regular season return of 18 goals and 15 assists makes him one of only a handful of players in MLS history to exceed 30 direct goal contributions. He also scored three goals from free kicks, the highest among postseason players.
• Inter Miami recorded the third-highest expected goals per match (xG per game) of any team in MLS history. Their attack consistently produces more than 2.0 xG per 90 minutes.
• Across the three matches against Nashville SC, Lionel Messi produced eight direct goal contributions (five goals, three assists). He averaged a decisive contribution every 24 minutes, the most efficient rate of any player remaining in the postseason.
• FC Cincinnati have not lost a home match to Inter Miami since 2021 and scored three goals against the Herons in the corresponding fixture earlier this season. They have won four of their last five home games in all competitions.

Player to Watch

Lionel Messi

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All eyes inevitably turn to Lionel Messi, whose influence on Inter Miami’s post-season campaign has already bordered on the absurd. The Argentine maestro arrives in Cincinnati fresh off a devastating three-match series against Nashville SC, where he produced five goals and three assists and effectively dragged the Herons into the conference semi-finals. Even at 38, Messi remains the league’s most decisive footballer, capable of tilting the balance of a knockout match in a matter of seconds.

What makes him so dangerous in this particular fixture is not just his finishing or creativity, but his ability to dismantle defensive structures that generally hold firm. Cincinnati are an organised and defensively disciplined side, yet no amount of structure fully prepares a team for Messi’s movement between the lines.

He drifts into pockets that defenders hesitate to follow, manipulates the tempo, and forces players out of position before delivering the killer pass or curling the ball into the far corner. Messi also elevates those around him. Tadeo Allende’s recent surge and Luis Suarez’s sharper instincts inside the box both stem from Messi’s gravitational pull, which opens channels and passing angles that do not exist for other teams.

If Inter Miami are to break Cincinnati’s strong home record and take control of this semifinal, it will almost certainly require another night where Messi dictates the moments that matter. In a match decided by tight margins and isolated spells of brilliance, no player on the pitch is more capable of shaping the narrative than Lionel Messi.

Prediction

FC Cincinnati 1-2 Inter Miami

This semi-final brings together two teams whose strengths lie at opposite ends of the spectrum: FC Cincinnati’s structure, discipline, and ability to edge out close contests versus Inter Miami’s volatility, firepower, and individual brilliance. The match is likely to hinge not on long stretches of dominance, but on short bursts of chaos, the kind of moments Miami specialise in creating.

Cincinnati’s home form cannot be ignored. Pat Noonan’s side have been near-impenetrable at TQL Stadium, and their narrow-margin victories reflect a team comfortable absorbing pressure and grinding through tense phases. With Miles Robinson anchoring the back three and Roman Celentano in excellent form behind him, they have the tools to frustrate Miami for extended periods.

Yet Miami enter this tie with something Cincinnati cannot prepare for on the training ground: Lionel Messi in knockout mode. His partnership with Rodrigo De Paul and the surging confidence of Tadeo Allende offer Miami multiple avenues to break lines and force mistakes. Their defensive fragility remains a concern, particularly on the road, but their capacity to score in any situation makes them a threat right until the final whistle.

This has all the makings of a tight, nervy contest that drifts deep into the second half before decisive moments arrive. Cincinnati’s structure gives them a platform, but Miami’s individual quality may ultimately provide the sharper edge when it matters most.