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AC Milan vs Pisa SC: Preview and Prediction

Two different worlds will collide when Serie A table-toppers AC Milan welcome bottom-feeders Pisa SC on Friday night.

The iconic San Siro will host a battle of extremes on Friday night as league leaders AC Milan welcome bottom-placed Pisa SC in a Serie A clash that pits one of Italy’s most dominant forces against a newly promoted side still finding its feet in the top flight.

AC Milan are riding a wave of confidence after their dramatic 2-1 comeback victory over Fiorentina last weekend, a result that propelled them to the summit of Serie A. The Rossoneri are now unbeaten in seven matches across all competitions, with four straight league wins and a perfect home record this season.

The hero of the Fiorentina encounter was none other than Rafael Leao, whose brace turned the game on its head and ended a 17-month goal drought at San Siro. His resurgence has come at a crucial time, as returning coach Massimiliano Allegri continues to restore stability and steel in his second spell at the club. Allegri’s Milan look far more balanced, tactically compact at the back and ruthless in transition, and with creative veteran Luka Modric orchestrating play from midfield, the side exudes control and confidence.

While Allegri has downplayed talk of a Scudetto challenge, Milan’s early form and consistency have reignited optimism among the fans. Victories over Bologna, Napoli, and Fiorentina, despite injury absences, underline their growing resilience. Another win here would further consolidate their position at the top and extend their unbeaten home run to eight games.

In stark contrast, Pisa SC arrive in Milan desperately searching for form and their first league win of the campaign. Their return to Serie A has been brutal, the Tuscans have scored only three goals and collected just three points from their opening fixtures, marking their worst-ever start to a top-flight season.

A 0-0 stalemate against fellow strugglers Hellas Verona last weekend offered a brief defensive improvement, but the lack of attacking fluency remains glaring. Coach Alberto Gilardino, known for his pragmatic approach, has been unable to find a consistent formula, with his team often sitting deep and struggling to progress the ball under pressure.

Historically, the numbers do not favour Pisa either. In 12 Serie A meetings with Milan, they have lost 10 and drawn only two, failing to score in nine of those encounters. With the Rossoneri in commanding form and San Siro a fortress once more, Pisa face an uphill battle to escape another defeat, particularly given they have already conceded eight goals in just three away fixtures this term.

For Allegri’s side, this is an opportunity to assert dominance and keep their rivals chasing. For Pisa, it is a fight for survival and dignity, but on current evidence, the gulf in class may prove insurmountable. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

AC Milan

AC Milan may be sitting proudly atop the Serie A table, but Massimiliano Allegri’s squad remains stretched due to a number of injury concerns ahead of Friday’s clash with Pisa. Several key players continue to occupy the treatment room, limiting the manager’s flexibility in rotation and tactical experimentation.

Among the confirmed absentees, Christian Pulisic, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupinan, and Ardon Jashari are all sidelined with ongoing injuries and will play no part in this fixture. Ruben Loftus-Cheek also remains a doubt, having yet to recover fully from a muscular strain; he has been training individually this week but is not expected to feature until later this month. Despite these setbacks, Milan have managed to maintain consistency, largely thanks to their squad depth and tactical adaptability under Allegri.

There is, however, some positive news for the Rossoneri. French forward Christopher Nkunku, who missed the win over Fiorentina due to a toe injury sustained on international duty, has returned to training and is expected to make the matchday squad. Allegri is likely to use him cautiously, potentially introducing him from the bench if the situation allows.

In terms of formation, Milan are expected to line up in a 3-5-2, which Allegri has used effectively to provide defensive stability while maintaining attacking fluidity. Mike Maignan will retain his place in goal, offering composure and distribution from the back. The defensive trio in front of him will comprise Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, and Strahinja Pavlovic, providing a balance of pace, aerial dominance, and tactical awareness.

Across midfield, Alexis Saelemaekers and young full-back Davide Bartesaghi are expected to operate as wing-backs, offering both defensive cover and width going forward. In the central areas, Youssouf Fofana will take on the holding role, screening the defence and breaking up play, while Luka Modric will dictate tempo from deep with his vision and passing range. Completing the midfield trio is Samuele Ricci, whose energy and forward runs will help transition play quickly through the lines.

Up front, Rafael Leao and Santiago Gimenez will lead the attack. Leao’s explosive pace, flair, and ability to take on defenders one-on-one make him Milan’s main offensive threat, while Gimenez will provide the poacher’s instinct and aerial presence to complement the Portuguese attacker’s creativity.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi; Leao, Gimenez

Pisa SC

Pisa head into this daunting clash with some positive news on the selection front as Idrissa Toure returns from suspension and is set to reclaim his position on the right flank. His energy and work rate down the wing will be vital as the visitors look to contain Milan’s wide threats and offer an outlet in transition. However, head coach Alberto Gilardino still faces a lengthy injury list that limits his ability to rotate.

The Tuscans will once again be without Calvin Stengs and Tomas Esteves, both nursing adductor issues, while defender Mateus Lusuardi has suffered a severe knee injury that will keep him sidelined until 2026. These absences have forced Gilardino to rely heavily on the same core group of players, particularly in midfield and attack, where he has yet to find a consistent scoring formula.

Despite their attacking struggles, Gilardino has continued to back his misfiring front pairing of M’Bala Nzola and Stefano Moreo, both of whom will start again as Pisa search for their first win of the campaign. Inter Milan loanee Ebenezer Akinsanmiro is expected to retain his place in midfield, offering dynamism and composure in possession.

Pisa are likely to set up in a 3-5-2 formation, aiming for compactness at the back and quick transitions through midfield. In goal, Adrian Semper will start between the posts, shielded by a three-man defensive line consisting of Simone Canestrelli, veteran Raul Albiol, and captain Antonio Caracciolo, whose experience will be key in organizing the backline against Milan’s fluid front two.

On the flanks, Idrissa Toure will occupy the right wing-back role, providing width and defensive cover, while Mehdi Leris will operate on the left, tasked with tracking Milan’s wide runners. The midfield trio will see Ebenezer Akinsanmiro partner Michel Aebischer and Marius Marin, a blend of youth, control, and tenacity aimed at stifling Milan’s central creativity.

Up front, Stefano Moreo will serve as the link-up forward, holding play and creating space for M’Bala Nzola, whose pace and physicality could pose sporadic threats on the counter-attack. Pisa’s offensive opportunities will likely be limited, so clinical finishing from their strikers will be crucial if they are to trouble the league leaders.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Semper; Canestrelli, Albiol, Caracciolo; Toure, Akinsanmiro, Aebischer, Marin, Leris; Moreo, Nzola

Key Stats

  • AC Milan have faced Pisa SC 12 times in Serie A history, winning 10 and drawing 2, while never losing. The Rossoneri have kept nine clean sheets in those meetings, underscoring their long-standing superiority.

  • AC Milan are unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions (W5 D2) and have recorded four consecutive home wins in Serie A. They have scored 11 goals and conceded only three in that stretch at San Siro.

  • Pisa SC have scored just three goals in seven Serie A matches, the joint-lowest tally in the league. They have also failed to score in four of those games and are averaging 0.4 goals per match since promotion.

  • The newly promoted side have lost two of their three away fixtures, conceding eight goals on the road , the second-worst defensive record in Serie A away games this season.

  • Under Massimiliano Allegri, Milan have averaged 2.2 points per home game since his return. They have also scored in 16 consecutive home league matches, the longest active streak in Italy’s top flight.

  • Despite their scoring struggles, Pisa have generated over 40 per cent of their goal attempts from set pieces, showing how reliant they are on dead-ball situations to threaten stronger opposition.

Player to Watch

Rafael Leao

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When Rafael Leoo is in full flight, there are few sights in Serie A more exhilarating. The Portuguese winger reminded everyone of his game-changing brilliance last weekend, scoring twice in Milan’s comeback victory over Fiorentina, a performance that ended his 17-month goal drought at San Siro and reignited his confidence at the perfect time.

Leao’s influence on this Milan side is immeasurable. Blessed with blistering pace, close control, and the ability to beat defenders in one-on-one situations, he remains the Rossoneri’s most dangerous attacking outlet. Under Massimiliano Allegri, he’s been given more freedom to roam, cutting inside from the left, drifting centrally to link up with Luka Modric, or exploiting gaps behind the opposition back line. That tactical fluidity has allowed him to rediscover the creative spark that made him one of Europe’s most exciting forwards during Milan’s title-winning run two years ago.

Beyond his attacking flair, Leao’s work rate and maturity have noticeably improved this season. He presses with intensity, tracks back when needed, and leads by example in crucial moments. His brace against Fiorentina was not just a reminder of his technical ability but also of his growing mental resilience, the composure to deliver when Milan most needed him.

Against Pisa’s deep defensive setup, Leao’s directness will be key to unlocking space and stretching the back three. His pace down the flank, combined with his instinct to cut inside and shoot, makes him a nightmare for slower defenders. If Milan are to maintain their grip on the top of the table, their No. 10 will likely be at the heart of it.

With confidence restored and goals flowing again, Rafael Leao looks poised to continue his resurgence, and Pisa may find themselves the next victims of his unstoppable form.

Prediction

AC Milan 3-0 Pisa SC

Everything points toward a comfortable night for AC Milan at San Siro. The Rossoneri are in imperious form, playing with the confidence and composure of a team that believes it can go all the way in the title race. Massimiliano Allegri has instilled both tactical discipline and attacking balance, and even with a depleted squad, Milan have enough quality to dominate from start to finish.

Rafael Leao’s resurgence, coupled with Luka Modrić’s orchestration in midfield, gives Milan an edge that few Serie A sides can match. Their ability to control tempo and switch play quickly should stretch Pisa’s compact shape, creating openings for runners like Santiago Gimenez. Milan’s recent home record, four straight wins at San Siro, suggests another commanding performance is likely.

For Pisa SC, the task is simply to limit damage. Despite a few encouraging defensive displays, their lack of attacking potency and experience at this level leave them heavily outmatched. The return of Idrissa Toure adds energy on the flank, but breaking down a defence led by Fikayo Tomori and Mike Maignan will be an uphill battle. Gilardino’s men will likely sit deep, absorb pressure, and hope for a counter-attacking opportunity through M’Bala Nzola, but sustained resistance seems unlikely.

Given AC Milan’s dominance in the fixture’s history and their current momentum, the result feels inevitable. Expect the hosts to dictate possession, suffocate Pisa SC’s midfield, and find multiple breakthroughs over 90 minutes. The Hard Tackle predicts a 3-0 victory for Massimiliano Allegri and his charges.

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