Borussia Dortmund will aim to open their Bundesliga campaign with a win at St. Pauli on Saturday evening.

Borussia Dortmund return to Bundesliga action on Saturday with a trip to Millerntor-Stadion, where they face St. Pauli in a clash that pits a side fighting to cement their top-flight status against one of Germany’s perennial title contenders. Dortmund are eager to launch a serious push for the 2025/26 crown, while St. Pauli’s priority will once again be survival after narrowly escaping relegation last season.

St. Pauli finished 14th last term with 32 points, surviving by a margin of just three points over the relegation playoff spot. Their defensive organisation was the key to staying afloat; their record of 41 goals conceded was the second-best in the Bundesliga behind champions Bayern Munich. However, their attacking output was alarmingly poor. The Kiezkicker scored only 28 times across the season, the lowest return in the division, and failed to find the net in three of their final four matches.

Head coach Alexander Blessin remains under pressure to improve his side’s creativity. Their season opener in the DFB-Pokal was another reminder of their struggles, as they required penalties to see off Norderstedt after a goalless draw in regulation. That result extended their run to six competitive matches without a win inside 90 minutes.

Even at home, where Millerntor-Stadion has often been considered an intimidating venue, St. Pauli faltered. They lost six of their final 11 matches in front of their supporters last season and picked up only two victories in that span. Blessin will need to inspire more consistency if they are to avoid another relegation battle.

For Borussia Dortmund, the 2024/25 campaign was a story of recovery. Struggling in mid-table under Nuri Sahin, the club made the bold decision to appoint Niko Kovac midway through the season. The move paid off, with Borussia Dortmund climbing from tenth to finish fourth, securing UEFA Champions League qualification in the process.

Kovac has restored belief that BVB can once again challenge Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen for the title. Dortmund collected 22 points from their final eight league fixtures, displaying the consistency of genuine contenders. They also finished with 71 league goals, the third-best tally in the division, underlining their attacking threat even during a turbulent season.

Their start to the new campaign has been steady, with a 1-0 victory over Rot-Weiss Essen in the DFB-Pokal on August 18. That win continued a strong run of form, with Dortmund claiming nine victories from their last 11 competitive matches. Away from home, they look especially solid, unbeaten in their last five trips, including three successive wins on the road.

Recent history favours Borussia Dortmund. They defeated St. Pauli twice in the Bundesliga last season, winning 2-1 and 2-0. However, the memory of their 2-1 loss to the same opponents in the DFB-Pokal back in 2022 will serve as a reminder not to underestimate the hosts.

While St. Pauli’s defensive structure may frustrate, their lack of firepower in attack could prove decisive against a Dortmund side brimming with confidence and momentum under Kovac. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

St. Pauli

Alexander Blessin faces some selection challenges ahead of the clash with Borussia Dortmund. Centre-backs David Nemeth and Karol Mets are both sidelined through injury, forcing him to rely on alternative options in defence. Fortunately, Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and Adam Dzwigala are all fit and available, giving Blessin the personnel to form a solid backline. There are no suspension concerns for the hosts, meaning Blessin still has some flexibility when setting up his side.

In midfield, James Sands is expected to feature prominently once again after being a regular starter last season. He could be paired with summer recruit Joel Chima Fujita, who will be aiming to make an impression in the centre of the park. On the flanks, Arkadiusz Pyrka and Louis Oppie may provide width, operating as wing-backs to support both defence and attack.

Up front, Blessin has the option to deploy a three-man attack. If he does, Dapo Afolayan, Andreas Hountondji, and Mathias Pereira Lage are the leading candidates to start. Their pace and movement will be key in exploiting any gaps in Dortmund’s defensive line, though they will also be tasked with working hard off the ball to disrupt the away side’s build-up play.

St. Pauli are expected to line up in a 3-4-3 formation. Nikola Vasilj will start in goal, protected by the central defensive trio of Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and Adam Dzwigala. The midfield four will likely consist of Arkadiusz Pyrka on the right, James Sands and Joel Chima Fujita in central areas, and Louis Oppie on the left. The attacking trio should feature Dapo Afolayan on the right wing, Mathias Pereira Lage on the left, and Andreas Hountondji operating through the middle as the central striker.

Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Vaslj; Wahl, Smith, Dzwigala; Pyrka, Sands, Fujita, Oppie; Afolayan, Hountondji, Lage

Borussia Dortmund

Niko Kovac has defensive concerns to address ahead of the trip to St. Pauli. Centre-backs Nico Schlotterbeck and Niklas Sule are both sidelined through injury, leaving the visitors short of experience in the heart of their defence. Fortunately, there are no suspension issues to deal with, but the absences of Schlotterbeck and Süle mean that Kovac will need to reshuffle his backline for this clash.

In midfield, Jobe Bellingham could be handed his first competitive start for Dortmund. The younger brother of Jude Bellingham, he is expected to slot into the centre of the park alongside Pascal Gross and Marcel Sabitzer, with the trio combining industry, vision, and creativity. On the flanks, Julian Ryerson and Daniel Svensson are likely to provide width as wing-backs, tasked with supporting the attack while also contributing defensively.

Up front, Dortmund will look to their prolific number nine, Serhou Guirassy. The striker enjoyed a stellar 2024/25 Bundesliga campaign, scoring 21 league goals, second only to Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane. He is expected to be partnered by Karim Adeyemi, whose pace and direct running can stretch defences and create space for Guirassy to exploit.

Dortmund are therefore expected to line up in a 3-5-2 system. Gregor Kobel will take his place in goal, protected by a defensive trio of Filippo Mane, Waldemar Anton, and Ramy Bensebaini. Julian Ryerson will operate as the right wing-back, with Daniel Svensson on the opposite flank. In central midfield, Pascal Gross, Marcel Sabitzer, and Jobe Bellingham will look to control possession and dictate the tempo. Serhou Guirassy will lead the line as the focal point of the attack, supported by Karim Adeyemi, who will offer pace and movement alongside him.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Kobel; Mane, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Gross, Sabitzer, Bellingham, Svensson; Guirassy, Adeyemi

Key Stats

• St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund meet for the 19th time in the Bundesliga. Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 12 league encounters with St. Pauli (W11 D1), winning 11 of them. BVB have a longer active unbeaten streak against no other current Bundesliga club.

• This is St. Pauli’s second consecutive Bundesliga season, the first time they’ve achieved this since 1995/96 and 1996/97. They lost 0-2 to Heidenheim on the opening matchday last season, and they have never started two consecutive Bundesliga campaigns with a defeat.

• Borussia Dortmund have won their opening Bundesliga fixture for the past 10 seasons, the longest such run in league history. No other side has managed more than seven consecutive opening-day wins. Away from home, BVB have won their last three season openers, scoring at least three times in each.

• Dortmund scored 71 league goals last season, ranking third behind Bayern Munich (99) and Bayer Leverkusen (72). Their opponents, St. Pauli, had the second-best defensive record in the Bundesliga, conceding just 41 goals, bettered only by Bayern’s 32.

• Dortmund took 22 points from a possible 24 in their last eight Bundesliga matches of 2024/25 (W7 D1), the best record in the league over that period. They also ended with five straight league wins, scoring at least three goals in each, their longest winning streak since autumn 2023.

Player to Watch

Serhou Guirassy

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All eyes will be on Serhou Guirassy as Borussia Dortmund begin their Bundesliga campaign. The striker was one of the standout performers in the league last season, finishing with 21 goals, second only to Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane. His ability to combine power, precision, and clever movement in and around the penalty area makes him Dortmund’s most dangerous weapon.

Guirassy thrives when provided with quick service and intelligent support from midfield runners, and under Niko Kovac, he is expected to continue as the focal point of the attack. With Karim Adeyemi offering pace alongside him, Guirassy will have the space and supply line to test St. Pauli’s well-organised defence.

Against a side that prided itself on defensive resilience last season, Guirassy’s finishing ability could prove decisive. If Borussia Dortmund are to break down St. Pauli’s resistance at the Millerntor-Stadion, their prolific number nine will likely be at the heart of it.

Prediction

St. Pauli 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

This match-up highlights two sides with contrasting ambitions. St. Pauli’s battle is for survival, while Dortmund are looking to mount a title challenge. The visitors’ superior squad depth, attacking power, and recent form suggest they should secure another victory at Millerntor-Stadion.