
Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund: Preview and Prediction
In-form Barcelona are set to host last season’s finalists Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals.
Barcelona are one of the favourites to win the UEFA Champions League this season, and they will be hoping to get a foot in the second round with a dominant display in the first leg of their quarter-final tie against Borussia Dortmund.
While the German outfit have not been at their best this season, winning this tie could go a long way in turning their campaign around and once again guiding them into the final four of the UEFA Champions League.
The home team have a four-point lead at the top of the table in La Liga, while they have also made it to the final of the Copa del Rey. Hansi Flick has completely transformed the team, and they are now firmly in contention for the treble.
While they are heading into this fixture on the back of a disappointing 1-1 draw against Real Betis, the Blaugrana were on a seven-match winning run before the draw. They have a star-studded squad and will be quite confident of getting the job done.
The visitors have been far from their best this season. Nuri Sahin, who took charge as their new boss ahead of the ongoing campaign, could only last just over 200 days before getting sacked. While Niko Kovac has somewhat steadied the ship since taking charge back in February, there is still a lot that needs to be taken care of.
Dortmund have climbed back to eighth in the league and remain unbeaten in the Champions League under their new boss. However, facing Barcelona won’t be easy. The Catalan giants will pose a formidable challenge, but it’s also a great opportunity for the German side to turn their season around. The Hard Tackle take a close look at both teams and tries to predict the tactics they could deploy.
Team News & Tactics
Barcelona
Barcelona will have to do without the services of Dani Olmo, Marc Casado, Marc Bernal, and Marc-Andre ter Stegen. Raphinha, who came off the bench in their last fixture, should return to the starting XI. While Inigo Martinez is a major doubt, he is expected to be back in the mix for this fixture.
Hansi Flick will stick to the 4-2-3-1 formation, where Wojciech Szczesny will be in goal. Jules Kounde and Alejandro Balde will feature as the full-backs, while Martinez could return to the starting eleven and pair up with Pau Cubarsi in the heart of the defence.
As for the midfield unit, Frenkie de Jong should partner with Pedri in the centre of the park. The duo will shield the backline and look to control the tempo of the game. Ferran Torres could take up the number ten role for this fixture, with Lamine Yamal and Raphinha lining up on the flanks. Robert Lewandowski will lead the line for Barcelona against his former club Borussia Dortmund.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsi, Martinez, Balde; de Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Ferran Torres, Raphinha; Lewandowski
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund were expected to have a triple boost ahead of this fixture as Yan Couto, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Niklas Sule were all expected to be back available. While Couto and Schlotterbeck are back from suspension, Sule has been ruled out for the rest of the campaign following a meniscus tear in his left knee. Apart from Sule, Marcel Sabitzer is also unavailable for this fixture.
Niko Kovac could go ahead with the 4-3-3 formation in this fixture. Gregor Kobel should continue in goal for the visitors. Julian Ryerson and Daniel Svensson could start on the flanks as full-backs, while Waldemar Anton should pair up with Ramy Bensebaini in the heart of the defence.
In the centre of the park, Salih Ozcan could start alongside Emre Can and Julian Brandt. Can will take up the role of a defensive midfield, while the other two will be in his support. Karim Adeyemi and Maximilian Beier could feature on the flanks for the team in yellow and black. Meanwhile, Serhou Guirassy should be back spearheading the Borussia Dortmund attack against Barcelona.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Bensebaini, Svensson; Can, Ozcan, Brandt; Adeyemi, Guirassy, Beier
Key Stats
- Borussia Dortmund have never won a UEFA Champions League game against Barcelona (D1 L2).
- The last time Borussia Dortmund travelled to Spain to face Barcelona, they lost 3-1.
- Across his spells with Bayern Munich and current club Barcelona, Hansi Flick has won all six of his meetings with Borussia Dortmund; his best 100% record against an opponent in this period. His sides have averaged three goals per game against them (18 in total), and netted at least three goals in five of the six matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have only won three of their 20 away matches against Spanish opponents in European competition (D5 L12), while they have only won one of the ten such matches in the knockout stages (D2 L7): 3-2 vs Sevilla in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League in February 2021.
- Jamie Gittens has netted four goals for Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most of any played aged under 21 in 2024/25. Indeed, the only player to net more for the club in a single edition of the competition while 21 or younger is Erling Haaland (10 goals in 2020/21).
Player to Watch
Raphinha
The Brazilian international has been one of the best forwards in all of Europe this season. Raphinha has featured in a total of 44 matches and has contributed towards 47 goals (27 goals, 20 assists). While he has been a standout performer for Barcelona, things have not been that great for him since the last international break.
After the way things ended against Real Betis last time out, the 28-year-old will be eager to deliver a standout performance. Raphinha has been directly involved in 16 goals in ten appearances in the UEFA Champions League this season (11 goals, five assists); only Lionel Messi in 2011-12 has had a hand in more in a single edition for Barcelona (19 – 14 goals, five assists). Expect the Barcelona talisman to rise to the occasion again.
Prediction
Barcelona 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
No doubt Borussia Dortmund have not been at their best, but they still have enough quality in their ranks to put up a strong performance against the high-flying Barcelona outfit. The Catalan giants should eventually come out on top in this home fixture, but they will certainly have to work hard for it. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for the home team.